Last trading day of January

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of January.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak.This can clearly be seen in the case of January from the chart below. From 1984 to 1999 the FTSE 100 only fell twice on the last trading of January. But since year 2000 the market fallen more often than risen on this day.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.19% on the LTD of January, with positive returns in 62% of all years, which makes the January LTD the third strongest month LTD in the year. However, as indicated above, things have changed since 2000: the average LTD return in January has been -0.17% making it the third weakest month LTD in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every January LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 Last Trading Day January (1984-2013) [2014]

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