Next Monday will be the first trading day (FTD) of February.
As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac, the market has a tendency to be strong on the FTD of a month. And this effect has been even more pronounced in recent years. This can be seen clearly in the chart below.
Since 1984, the FTSE 100 Index has risen on average 0.61% on the February FTD – this is 20 times the average return on all days of 0.03%. This makes it the strongest month FTD of the year. There have been positive returns on the February FTD in 59% of years.
Since 2000, the performance has been even stronger on the February FTD, with an average return of 0.93% and positive returns in 11 of the past 14 years – which make it still the strongest month FTD of the year.
The following chart shows the returns for every February FTD since 1984.