Last trading day of October

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of October.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.51% on the LTD of October, with positive returns in 72% of all years, which makes it easily the strongest LTD of any month in the year.

However, since 2000 the October has not been so strong: chalking up an average increase of 0.07% on the day.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every October LTD since 1984.

 

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