Congratulations to Andy Murray! We thought we would join in the fun…
After the Great Crash of 1929, the UK market bottomed in June 1932; 49 months later Fred Perry won Wimbledon.
After the Credit Crunch of 2007, the UK market bottomed in March 2009; 51 months later Andy Murray won Wimbledon.
The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE All Share Index for Jan 2007 – Jul 2013 overlaid on the index for Jan 1930 – Dec 1939. The index has been re-based to 100 in both cases.
Of course, correlation is not causation…but, spooky no?
If the market today continues to follow the Fred Perry market of the 1930s, we can expect the UK market to be strong for another five months (to around December 2013) and after that, a big sell-off.