As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac, historically UK market performance in November has been nothing special – it is 5th in the ranking of months.
The following chart plots the average performance of the FTSE 100 Index during November since 1984 (more info on this type of chart).
The chart shows that on average the UK market climbs steadily throughout the month.
US election years
However, this year is a little special as we have the US presidential election in November.The elections always take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November; the earliest possible date is 2 November and the latest possible date is 8 November. This year the election is 6 November.
The following chart plots the average performance of the UK market in November (as above), but only for the years in which there’s been a US presidential election.
As can be seen, historically, early enthusiam in the first couple of days has given way to a sell-off until a rally in the final week of the month.