UK equity indices returns 2017 3Q & YTD

2017 3Q

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices in the third quarter 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 3Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index TIDM Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 5.5
FTSE Fledgling 4.7
FTSE AIM All-Share 4.0
FTSE 250 2.8
FTSE SmallCap 2.3
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 2.1
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 1.8
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 1.7
FTSE4Good UK 1.3
FTSE All-Share 1.2
FTSE 350 1.2
FTSE 100 0.8
FTSE4Good UK 50 0.7
FTSE TechMARK All Share -0.5
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -2.8

2017 3Q YTD

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices over the first 3 quarters of 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 3Q YTD

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 25.6
FTSE AIM All-Share 18.9
FTSE Fledgling 17.6
FTSE SmallCap 11.1
FTSE 250 9.9
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 7.8
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 6.6
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 5.5
FTSE All-Share 4.6
FTSE 350 4.3
FTSE4Good UK 4.0
FTSE TechMARK All Share 3.5
FTSE 100 3.2
FTSE4Good UK 50 2.8
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -0.9

 

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FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Quarterly Review – September 2017

After market close on 30 August 2017 FTSE Russell confirmed the following changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The changes will be implemented at the close Friday, 15 September 2017 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 18 September 2017.

FTSE 100

Joining: NMC Health [NMC], Berkeley Group Holdings [BKG]

Leaving: Royal Mail [RMG], Provident Financial [PFG]

FTSE 250

Joining: Royal Mail [RMG], Provident Financial [PFG], Alfa Financial Software Holdings [ALFA], 888 Holdings [888], Sequoia Economic Infrastructure Income Fund [SEQ]

Leaving: NMC Health [NMC], Berkeley Group Holdings [BKG], Northgate [NTG], Petra Diamonds [PDL], Carillion [CLLN]

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UK equity indices returns 2017 2Q & 1H

2017 2Q

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices in the second quarter 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 2Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index TIDM Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 6.3
FTSE AIM All-Share 3.9
FTSE Fledgling 3.7
FTSE SmallCap 2.8
FTSE 250 1.9
FTSE TechMARK All Share 1.6
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 1.5
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 1.4
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 1.0
FTSE4Good UK 0.5
FTSE4Good UK 50 0.3
FTSE All-Share 0.3
FTSE 350 0.2
FTSE 100 -0.1
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -1.4

2017 1H

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices in the first half 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 1H

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 19.01
FTSE AIM All-Share 14.4
FTSE Fledgling 12.26
FTSE SmallCap 8.59
FTSE 250 6.99
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 5.5
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 4.69
FTSE TechMARK All Share 3.99
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 3.72
FTSE All-Share 3.33
FTSE 350 3.14
FTSE4Good UK 2.65
FTSE 100 2.38
FTSE4Good UK 50 2.12
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 1.87
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UK equity indices returns 2017 1Q

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices in the first quarter 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 1Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index TIDM Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 11.9
FTSE AIM All-Share 10.1
FTSE Fledgling 8.3
FTSE SmallCap 5.6
FTSE 250 4.9
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 4.0
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 3.7
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 3.3
FTSE All-Share 3.0
FTSE 350 2.9
FTSE 100 2.5
FTSE TechMARK All Share 2.3
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 2.2
FTSE4Good UK 2.1
FTSE4Good UK 50 1.8

 

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FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Quarterly Review – March 2017

After market close on 1 March 2017 FTSE Russell confirmed the following changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The changes will be implemented at the close Friday, 17 March 2017 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 20 March 2017.

FTSE 100

Joining: Scottish Mortgage IT [SMT], Rentokil Initial [RTO]

Leaving: Capita [CPI], Dixons Carphone [DC.]

FTSE 250

Joining: Northgate [NTG], Sanne Group [SNN], Syncona [SYNC]

Leaving: Brown N [BWNG], CMC Markets [CMCX], International Personal Finance [IPF]

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A very average start to 2017

The following chart plots the daily returns of the FTSE 100 Index for the nine days around Christmas and New Year.

The blue bars plot the average daily returns of these days for the period 2000-2016. The orange bars plot the daily returns for the last nine days.

FTSE 100 Index daily returns around Christmas and New Year [2017]

As can be seen the actual daily returns for the last nine days have been on the whole pretty close to the average daily returns seen for the last 16 years..

  • Strong returns have been seen on the trading days following Christmas and New Year.
  • After the first day after New year, returns have trailed off (days 8 and 9 in the chart).
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Average market behaviour in January

The following chart plots the average performance of the FTSE 100 Index during January since 1984.

Average month chart for January [1985-2016]

As can be seen, historically the market tends to rise for the first two or three days in January and then sells off quite strongly over the following two weeks. The second week of January is the weakest week for the market in the whole year. Then, around the middle of the third week, the market has tended to rebound sharply.


Other articles about the market in January.

 

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FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Quarterly Review – December 2016

After market close on 30 November 2016 FTSE Russell confirmed the following changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The changes will be implemented at the close Friday, 16 December 2016 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 19 December 2016.

FTSE 100

Joining: ConvaTec Group [CTEC],  Smurfit Kappa [SKG]

Leaving: Polymetal International [POLY], Travis Perkins [TPK]

FTSE 250

Joining: Ferrexpo [FXPO], NewRiver REIT [NRR], Nostrum Oil & Gas [NOG], Polymetal International [POLY], Travis Perkins [TPK]

Leaving: Countrywide [CWD], DFS Furniture [DFS], Laird [LRD], NCC Group [NCC], Smurfit Kappa [SKG]

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Tuesday reverses Monday

Do market returns on Tuesdays reverse those on Monday?

We first looked at this in 2013 (in this article), so time to see if anything has changed.

First, the following updates the chart to 2016 plotting Tuesday returns for the FTSE 100 Index split by whether the previous day’s returns were positive or negative. Two time periods are considered: 1984-2016 and 2000-2016.

For example, for the longer period, the average return on Tuesday when Monday was up is 0.02%, while the average Tuesday return when Monday was down is 0.09%.

FTSE 100 returns on Tuesdays when Monday was up-down

While the figures have marginally changed from the previous study in 2013, the overall finding is the same: namely that the theory that Tuesday reverses Monday does not seem to hold. Since 1984 it has done so when Monday returns have been negative, but not when they have been positive. 

As in the 2013 study, the theory has been valid for the market since 2000.

The previous study suggested that further analysis might include a filter on the size of the Monday returns. This is done in the following chart, where Tuesday returns are only considered if Monday’s returns were beyond a certain threshold (i.e. of a certain size). The (arbitrary) threshold chosen was 1 standard deviation for Monday’s returns.

FTSE 100 returns on Tuesdays when Monday was up-down (1SD filter)

It can be seen that limiting the analysis of Tuesday returns to just large movements on Monday (i.e. beyond 1 standard deviation) does help the reversal theory. In this case, if the market rises on Monday, then on average it falls the following day (albeit a pretty small average fall), and if the market falls on Monday, the market rises (fairly strongly) on the Tuesday.

Let’s now look at how the theory has been holding up in recent years.

Recent years

The following chart is similar in design to the previous charts, but this time it plots the reversal results for the discrete years 2013 – 2016.

FTSE 100 returns on Tuesdays when Monday was up-down [2013-2016]

First, when the market is up on Monday, all four of the past four years has failed to support the reversal theory as Tuesday has followed with positive returns as well. When Mondays are down, in three of the past four years Tuesdays have seen positive average returns (the exception being 2015).

Exploiting the reversal effect

OK, so how to exploit this?

The following chart plots the cumulative value of a portfolio that invests in the FTSE 100 just on Tuesdays when the previous day saw negative returns. For the rest of the time it is in cash.

In the 2013 study a variant portfolio was also considered, that as well as going long Tuesdays following negative Mondays also went short Tuesdays following positive return Mondays. There’s currently not much point in considering this as the reversal effect is not working for positive Mondays.

So, instead the variant second strategy studied here is as above (i.e. long Tuesday following a negative Monday) but with a 1 standard deviation filter applied to the Monday return (i.e. the strategy only goes long on Tuesday if the Monday negative return is a greater than 1 standard deviation return).

Strategies exploiting the Tuesday reversal effect [2000-2016]

Since 2000 it can be seen that the simple long Tuesday strategy out-performs the benchmark buy-and-hold FTSE 100 portfolio. The variant 1SD strategy only marginally out-performs the simple long Tuesday strategy, but does so with with a greatly reduced volatility.

 

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