Stocks with the worst recent annual performance

The following table shows the 13 FTSE All-Share stocks that have had the highest number of consecutive negative annual returns to end 2014. The last column gives the number of years of consecutive negative returns.

For example, First Group has not had an up year since 2007, and so has had seven consecutive years of negative returns up to 2014.

Company TIDM Index Consec -ve Yrs
FirstGroup FGP FTSE Mid 250 7
Tesco TSCO FTSE 100 5
Aquarius Platinum Ltd AQP FTSE Small Cap 5
Hardy Oil & Gas HDY FTSE Small Cap 5
BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust BRLA FTSE Small Cap 4
Anglo American AAL FTSE 100 4
BlackRock World Mining Trust BRWM FTSE Mid 250 4
Anglo Pacific Group APF FTSE Small Cap 4
Premier Oil PMO FTSE Mid 250 4
City Natural Resources High Yield Trust CYN FTSE Small Cap 4
BlackRock Commodities Income Investment Trust BRCI FTSE Small Cap 4
Ferrexpo FXPO FTSE Small Cap 4
Hansard Global HSD FTSE Small Cap 4

 

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Shares that like/dislike January

Shares that like January

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in January over the last ten years. For example, Computacenter has an average return of 9.3% for the month of January. All stocks have risen in January for nine of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Computacenter 9.3
CSR 8.1
Electra Private Equity 6.8
St James’s Place 5.6
Euromoney Institutional Investor 4.4

Shares that dislike January

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in January over the last ten years. For example, Unilever has an average return of -3.2% for the month of January. All five stocks have fallen in eight of the past ten years in January.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) -4.7
Tesco -4.3
GlaxoSmithKline -3.3
Unilever -3.2
Dairy Crest Group -3.2

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong January stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak January stocks by an average of 10.5 percentage points in January for the past ten years.

 

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FTSE 100 Index – 30 years old today

The FTSE 100 Index was launched on 3 January 1984. The market capitalisation weighted FTSE 100 index replaced the price-weighted FT30 Index as the performance benchmark for most investors.

Price performance

The following chart shows the price performance of the FTSE 100 Index 1984-2013. A simple linear trendline has been added.

FTSE 100 Index [1984-2013] with trendlineThe index was launched in 1984 with a value of 1000 and closed 2013 at 6749. This is an increase of 575% over the 30 years, giving an annual growth of 6.57%.

The trendline calculates a value of 6695 for the end of 2013, which is just 54 points away from the actual value (less than 1% difference). As can be seen in the chart, the FTSE 100 Index is pretty much bang on its long-term (since 1984) trend.

Fascinating Footsie Facts

Number of companies in index 100
Market capitalisation, average (£m) 18,253
Market capitalisation, standard deviation 24,837
Share price, average (£) 12.93
Number of companies paying a dividend 96
Dividend yield, average (%) 2.92
Dividend yield, standard deviation 1.29
PE ratio, average 20.2
PE ratio, standard deviation 14.2
PEG, average 2.3
Turnover, average (£m) 14,674
Turnover growth last five years, average (%) 76.2
Turnover to capitalisation ratio, average 0.88
Number of companies making a profit 94
Profit, average (£m) 1,534
Profit growth last five years, average (%) 101.6
Profit / turnover, average (%) 16.9
Current ratio, average 1.29
Net cash, average (£m) 5838
Net cash, sum total (£m) 566,363
Price to net cash ratio, average 24.2
Net borrowings, average (£m) -1710
Net borrowings, sum total (£m) -165,902
Net gearing, average 1.00
Interest cover, average 70.0
ROCE, average (%) 50.1
ROCE, standard deviation 107.6

Original constituents

The following table shows the 30 original companies that are still in the Index today. (The 19 italicised companies have been in the index continuously since launch.)

Company TIDM
Associated British Foods
Aviva
British American Tobacco
Barclays
BAE Systems
BP
GlaxoSmithKline
GKN
Hammerson
Imperial Tobacco Group
Johnson Matthey
Land Securities Group
Legal & General Group
Lloyds Banking Group
Marks & Spencer Group
Pearson
Prudential
Reckitt Benckiser Group
Reed Elsevier
Rexam
Rio Tinto
RBS Group
RSA Insurance Group
J Sainsbury
Royal Dutch Shell
Smith & Nephew
Standard Chartered
Tesco
Unilever
Whitbread

Largest companies

The following table compares the market capitalisations of the top five largest companies in the index in 1984 and today.

Rank (1984) Capital (£m) Rank (2013) Capital (£m)
1 British Petroleum Co. 7401 Royal Dutch Shell 140,695
2 Shell Trans. & Trad. Co. 6365 HSBC Holdings 124,728
3 General Electric Co. 4915 Vodafone Group 114,860
4 Imperial Chemical Industries 3917 BP 90,984
5 Marks & Spencer 2829 GlaxoSmithKline 78,252

Oil is still there today, but industrial, chemical and retail stocks have been replaced by bank, telecom and pharmaceutical stocks.

In 1984 the total market capitalisation of the index was £100 billion; at the end of 2013 the market capitalisation had grown to £1,824 billion.

It’s interesting to note that Shell’s market cap. today is 40% larger than the whole FTSE 100 Index in 1984.

Other references

FTSE 100 at 30 article in the Telegraph  by Martin Vander Weyer.

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Shares that like/dislike January

Shares that like January

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in January over the last ten years. For example, Aveva Group has an average return of 6.3% for the month of January. Each stock has risen in every January in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Electra Private Equity 7.2
Aveva Group 6.3
SIG 5.9
St James’s Place 5.6
Euromoney Institutional Investor 4.5

Shares that dislike January

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in January over the last ten years. For example, First Group has an average return of -9.7% for the month of January. All five stocks have fallen in every January in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
FirstGroup -9.7
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) -4.8
Tesco -4.6
GlaxoSmithKline -3.8
Pennon Group -2.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong January stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak January stocks by an average of 10.9 percentage points in January for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike August

Shares that like August

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in August over the last ten years. For example, Fisher (James) & Sons has an average return of 10.1% for the month of August. Each stock has risen in at least nine of the past ten years in August – Fisher (James) & Sons is the only stock in the FTSE 350 whose shares have risen every August in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Fisher (James) & Sons 10.1
Keller Group 5.2
Bunzl 5.1
Centrica 4.5
Tesco 3.1

A portfolio of these five stocks would have out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in August every year over the last ten years with an average out-performance of 4.9 percentage points each August.

Shares that dislike August

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in August over the last ten years. For example, Pennon Group has an average return of -3.2% for the month of August. All three stocks have fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in August.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Pennon Group -3.2
Rio Tinto -2.6
Investec -1.7

A portfolio of these three stocks would have under-performed the FTSE 350 Index in August in eight of the  last ten years with an average under-performance of 3.1 percentage points each August.

 

 

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Food & Drug Retailers sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Food & Drug Retailers sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Food & Drug Retailers sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the Food & Drug Retailers sector has under-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.8 percentage points in January.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have beem August and September – the sector has under-performed the market only four times in the past 14 years in August.
  2. The weakest months have been January and October – the sector has out-performed the market only four times in January in the last 13 years.

The seven stocks in the FTSE 350 Food & Drug Retailers sector [NMX5330] are-

Booker Group [BOK] Sainsbury (J) [SBRY]
Greggs [GRG] Tesco [TSCO]
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets [MRW] United Drug [UDG]
Ocado Group [OCDO]
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Influence of largest companies on FTSE 100 Index

The following chart shows the impact on the FTSE 100 Index of a 10% move in the share price of each of the 20 largest companies in the index. [The reference level for the FTSE 100 is 6318.]

For example, if the share price of Shell fell (rose) 10% the impact on the FTSE 100 Index would be a fall (rise) of 49 points in the index.

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