2015 2Q performance – international markets

Equity and commodity markets

The following chart shows the returns on a range of international stock markets and commodities in the second quarter of 2015.

2015 2Q International market returns

NOTES

  1. The Euro markets, Germany, Italy, France and Netherlands, after a strong first quarter all saw negative returns in the second quarter.
  2. Apart from India, a strong quarter for the BRICs.
  3. A weak quarter for metals.
  4. Despite falling back steadily in May and June, the strongest performer here was Brent Oil on the back of a very strong April.

Currency markets

The following chart shows a sample of currency moves against the British pound in 2Q 2015. For example, the British pound strengthened 5.8% against the US Dollar, and 1.0% against the Russian Ruble.

2015 2Q Pound sterling performance

As can be seen, in the last quarter sterling strengthened against all currencies in this sample.

Equity and commodity markets (sterling)

The following chart shows the returns on the same markets as in the first chart, but this time in sterling terms (i.e. showing the currency-adjusted returns for a UK investor).

2015 2Q International market returns (GBP)

NOTES

  1. Over the second quarter UK investors saw their returns on international markets pared back due to the strength of sterling. (In fact, of the 22 sample markets here, UK investors would have seen positive returns in only four.)

Equity and commodity markets (dollar)

The following chart shows the returns on the same markets as in the first chart, but this time in US dollar terms (i.e. showing the currency-adjusted returns for a US investor).

2015 2Q International market returns (USD)

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2015 1Q market review – international markets

Equity and commodity markets

The following chart shows the returns on a range of international stock markets and commodities in the first quarter of 2015.

2015 1Q International market returns

Notes

  1. The Euro markets, Germany, Italy, France and Netherlands, dominate the top of the performance chart this last quater.
  2. At the bottom are the commodities (gold, oill and platinum), and US stocks.

Currency markets

The following chart shows a sample of currency moves against the British pound in 2015 1Q. For example, the British pound strengthened 14.5% against the Brazilean Real, and fell 8.8% against the Russian Ruble.

2015 1Q Pound sterling performance b

Equity and commodity markets (sterling)

The following chart shows the returns on the same markets as in the first chart, but this time in sterling terms (i.e. showing the currency-adjusted returns for a UK investor). The order of the markets has been kept the same as in the first chart, to highlight the effect of the currency moves.

2015 1Q International market returns (GBP)

Notes

  1. Over the first quarter sterling strengthened against the Euro (thus diminishing the effective returns from Euro markets), and weakened against the US dollar.
  2. A major positive impact for UK investors was the weakness of sterling against the ruble which boosted returns on Russian equity exposure.
  3. Conversely, the weakness of the Brazilian Real  acted to reduce returns on Brazil equities.
  4. While oil fell 4.0% in dollar terms in the quarter, UK investors saw a small positive return of 0.8%.

Equity and commodity markets (dollar)

The following chart shows the returns on the same markets as in the first chart, but this time in US dollar terms (i.e. showing the currency-adjusted returns for a US investor).

2015 1Q International market returns (USD)

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2014 1Q market review – international markets

Equity and commodity markets

The following chart shows the returns on a range of international stock markets and commodities in the first quarter of 2014.

International market returns 2014 1QNotes-

  1. Italy!
  2. FTSE 100 was the second weakest equity market in the G7
  3. Apart from India, the BRIC’s 2013 weakness continued into the first quarter.

Currency markets

The following chart shows a sample of currency moves against the British pound in 2014 1Q. For example, the British pound strengthened 7.9% against the Russian Ruble, and fell 4.6% against the New Zealand Dollar.

Pound sterling performance 2014 1QEquity and commodity markets (sterling)

The following chart shows the returns on the same markets as in the first chart, but this time in sterling terms (i.e. showing the currency-adjusted returns for a UK investor). The order of the markets has been kept the same as in the first chart.

International market returns 2014 1Q (GBP)Notes-

  1. As GBP strengthened a small amount against USD and EUR in the period this had the effect of reducing (marginally) the gains in US and Euro denominated markets in sterling terms.
  2. Sterling-adjusted, the Indian equity market jumped over gold to be the second strongest market in the period.
  3. Although the Brazil equity market fell in the period, sterling investors would have seen a gain due to the weakness of GBP against BRL.

(Similar analysis for 2012, 1H 2013, 2013.)

 

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2013 market review – international markets

Equity and commodity markets

The following chart shows the returns on a range of international stock markets and commodities in 2013.

International markets returns 2013

A few notes-

  1. Japan was easily the strongest market in this selection in 2013 (+56.7%)
  2. The FTSE 100 was the weakest of the G7 markets here.
  3. Not a good year for the BRICS.

Currency markets

The following chart shows a sample of currency moves against the British pound in the year. For example, the British pound increased 25.4% against the South African Rand, and fell in value 2.1% against the Euro.

Pound sterling performance 2013Equity and commodity markets (sterling)

The following chart shows the returns on the same range of markets shown in the first chart, but this time in sterling terms (i.e. showing the currency-adjusted returns for a UK investor). The order of the markets has been kept the same as in the first chart.

International markets returns 2013 (GBP)Some notes-

  1. UK investors would have seen a return in the Nikkei 225 of 26.6% (down from 56.7% after adjusting for the large fall in the yen against sterling).
  2. The strongest sterling-adjusted market in 2013 in this selection was Nasdaq (+35.7%).
  3. The second strongest market was the FTSE 250.
  4. In domestic currency terms the Australian market rose 15.1% in 2013, but UK investors would have experienced a loss of 3.1% in this market as sterling increased 18.8% against the Aussie dollar.
  5. Except for China, the losses in the BRIC markets were exacerbated by the strength of sterling against their currencies. For example, a domestic currency loss of 15.5% in the Brazilian market became a 28.0% loss for UK investors in that market…
  6. …and the same for gold and silver as sterling appreciated against the US dollar in the year.

(Similar analysis for 2012, 1H 2013.)

 

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Equity Investment Instruments sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Equity Investment Instruments sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Equity Investment Instruments sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 1.9 percentage points in January.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been January and May – the sector has under-performed the market only two times in January in the last 14 years.
  2. The weakest month has been October – the sector has out-performed the market only five times in October in the last 14 years.

The 46 stocks in the FTSE 350 Equity Investment Instruments sector [NMX8980] are-

3i Infrastructure Ltd [3IN] John Laing Infrastructure Fund Ltd [JLIF]
Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust PLC [ASL] JPMorgan American Investment Trust PLC [JAM]
Alliance Trust PLC [ATST] JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust PLC [JMG]
Bankers Investment Trust PLC [BNKR] JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust PLC [JII]
BH Global Ltd [BHGG] Law Debenture Corporation (The) PLC [LWDB]
BH Macro Ltd [BHMU] Mercantile Investment Trust (The) PLC [MRC]
BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC [BRWM] Merchants Trust (The) PLC [MRCH]
Bluecrest Allblue Fund Ltd [BABS] Monks Investment Trust (The) PLC [MNKS]
British Assets Trust PLC [BSET] Murray Income Trust PLC [MUT]
British Empire Securities & General Trust PLC [BTEM] Murray International Trust PLC [MYI]
Caledonia Investments PLC [CLDN] NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd [NBLS]
City of London Investment Trust (The) PLC [CTY] Perpetual Income & Growth Investment Trust PLC [PLI]
Dexion Absolute Ltd [DAB] Personal Assets Trust PLC [PNL]
Edinburgh Dragon Trust PLC [EFM] Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC [PCT]
Edinburgh Investment Trust (The) PLC [EDIN] RIT Capital Partners PLC [RCP]
Electra Private Equity PLC [ELTA] Scottish Investment Trust PLC [SCIN]
Fidelity China Special Situation PLC [FCSS] Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC [SMT]
Fidelity European Values PLC [FEV] Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC [TMPL]
Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust PLC [FRCL] Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC [TEM]
Genesis Emerging Markets Fund Ltd [GSS] TR Property Investment Trust PLC [TRY]
Herald Investment Trust PLC [HRI] Utilico Emerging Markets Ltd [UEM]
HICL Infrastructure Company Ltd [HICL] Witan Investment Trust PLC [WTAN]
International Public Partnership Ltd [INPP] Worldwide Healthcare Trust PLC [WWH]
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TR Property Investment Trust [TRY] – 60 years on the LSE

On this day in 1953 TR Property Investment Trust listed on the LSE.

The following chart plots the average monthly out-performance of the shares over the FTSE 100 Index since 1994. For example, on average TR Property Investment Trust has out-performed the FTSE 100 by 2.7 percentage points in May.

Observations:

  1. The strongest month for TR Property Investment Trust relative to the market has been May (the shares have out-performed the market in this month in 12 of the last 19 years).
  2. TR Property Investment Trust shares have been weak relative to the market in October (the shares have only out-performed the market in this month in 8 of the past 19 years).

 

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International markets in 2012

Equity and commodity markets

The following chart shows the returns on a range of international stock markets and commodities in 2012.

Notes-

  1. The German market was the strongest (+29.1%), followed by the Asian markets of India, Japan, and Hong Kong.
  2. The FTSE 100 was ranked 22 out of the 25 markets appearing here.
  3. Over half the markets increased by more than 10% in 2012.

Currency markets

The following chart shows a sample of currency moves against the British pound in the year. For example, the British pound increased 16.5% against the Japanese Yen, and fell in value 6.7% against the Polish Zloty.

Equity and commodity markets (sterling)

The following chart shows the returns on the same range of markets shown above, but this time in sterling terms (i.e. showing the returns for a UK investor).

Notes-

  1. The German market remains the strongest for 2012, with its returns reduced from 29.1% to 26.4% due to the slight appreciation of GBP against EUR over the year.
  2. A big difference is the return for the Nikkei Index in sterling terms – falling from 22.9% to 5.5%.
  3. In sterling terms the FTSE 100 climbs from 22nd position to 15th.
  4. And in sterling terms the FTSE 250 Index climbs to 2nd position.
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