FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Quarterly Review – December 2016

After market close on 30 November 2016 FTSE Russell confirmed the following changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The changes will be implemented at the close Friday, 16 December 2016 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 19 December 2016.

FTSE 100

Joining: ConvaTec Group [CTEC],  Smurfit Kappa [SKG]

Leaving: Polymetal International [POLY], Travis Perkins [TPK]

FTSE 250

Joining: Ferrexpo [FXPO], NewRiver REIT [NRR], Nostrum Oil & Gas [NOG], Polymetal International [POLY], Travis Perkins [TPK]

Leaving: Countrywide [CWD], DFS Furniture [DFS], Laird [LRD], NCC Group [NCC], Smurfit Kappa [SKG]

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Shares that like/dislike June

Shares that like June

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Synergy has an average return of 11.1% for the month of June. All stocks have risen in June for at least eight of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Synergy Health 11.1
Ted Baker 4.1
RPC Group 5.2

 Shares that dislike June

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Barclays has an average return of -7.8% for the month of June. All five stocks have fallen in at least nine of the past ten years in June.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Barclays -7.8
Travis Perkins -7.1
Bodycote -5.6
Schroders -4.0
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets -3.6

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong June stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak June stocks by an average of 12.4 percentage points in June for the past ten years.

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Travis Perkins [TPK] – 27 years on the LSE

On this day in 1986 Travis Perkins listed on the LSE.

The following chart plots the average monthly out-performance of the shares over the FTSE 100 Index since 1988. For example, on average Travis Perkins has out-performed the FTSE 100 by 4.5 percentage points in March.

Average monthly performance of Travis Perkins [TPK] relative to the FTSE 100 Index (1988-2013)

Observations

  1. The strongest month for Travis Perkins shares relative to the market has been March (the shares have out-performed the market in this month in 19 of the last 25 years).
  2. The weakest month for Travis Perkins relative to the market has been June (the shares have only out-performed the market in this month in 12 of the past 25 years).

Travis Perkins is in the FTSE 350 Support Services [NMX2790] sector.

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Support Services sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Support Services sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Support Services sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 1.2 percentage points in January.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been January and December – the sector has under-performed the market only four times in December in the last 14 years.
  2. The weakest month has been July – the sector has out-performed the market only four times in July in the last 14 years.

The 23 stocks in the FTSE 350 Support Services sector [NMX2790] are-

Aggreko [AGK] Filtrona [FLTR]
Ashtead Group [AHT] G4S [GFS]
Atkins (W S) [ATK] Hays [HAS]
Babcock International Group [BAB] Homeserve [HSV]
Berendsen [BRSN] Howden Joinery Group [HWDN]
Bunzl [BNZL] Interserve [IRV]
Capita Group (The) [CPI] Intertek Group [ITRK]
Carillion [CLLN] Menzies (John) [MNZS]
De La Rue [DLAR] Michael Page International [MPI]
Diploma [DPLM] MITIE Group [MTO]
Electrocomponents [ECM] PayPoint [PAY]
Experian [EXPN]
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