Bounceback portfolio 2016

The Bounceback Portfolio invests in the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks of the previous year and holds them for the 3-month period, January-March. 

Performance in 2016

The following table lists the ten worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in 2015. These ten stocks form the 2016 Bounceback Portfolio.

Company TIDM 2015 2016 (Jan-Mar)
Anglo American -75.1 84.4
Glencore -69.7 73.9
KAZ Minerals -60.3 66.7
Tullow Oil -60.0 18.8
Evraz -52.6 22.9
Vedanta Resources -52.1 24.6
Home Retail Group -52.0 66.6
Amec Foster Wheeler -49.7 4.9
Drax Group -46.9 11.3
Weir Group -46.0 10.8
FTSE 350 -2.8 -1.4

The final column in the above table also gives the returns for each stock for the period Jan-Mar 2016. For example, Anglo American shares fell 75.1% in 2015, and then rose (bounced back) 84.4% in the first three months of 2016.

The performance of the 10 Bounceback Portfolio stocks for Jan-Mar 2016 is shown in the following chart.

Bounceback portfolio 2016

On average the Bounceback Portfolio stocks had a 3-month return of 38.5%, compared with a FTSE 350 Index return of -1.4% for the same period.

Bounceback portfolio performance 2003-2016

The Bounceback Portfolio has been running since 2003. The following chart shows the comparative performance of the portfolio and the FTSE 350 Index for each year.

Bounceback portfolio v FTSE 350 [2003-2016]

As can be seen the Bounceback Portfolio scored its greatest out-performance of the FTSE 350 in 2016.

Since 2003, the Bounceback Portfolio has under-performed the index only twice (2013 and 2015).

The following chart shows the cumulative performance of the portfolio from 2003.

Bounceback portfolio cumulative performance [2003-2016]

 

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Oil & Gas Producers sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Oil & Gas Producers sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the Oil & Gas Producers sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.4 percentage points in March.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been March and June – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in March in the last 13 years.
  2. The weakest month has been November – the sector has out-performed the market only six times in march in the last 14 years.

The 13 stocks in the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers sector [NMX0530] are-

Afren [AFR] Ophir Energy [OPHR]
BG Group [BG.] Premier Oil [PMO]
BP [BP.] Royal Dutch Shell [RDSB]
Cairn Energy [CNE] Salamander Energy [SMDR]
EnQuest [ENQ] SOCO International [SIA]
Essar Energy [ESSR] Tullow Oil [TLW]
Heritage Oil Ltd [HOIL]
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