United States presidential inauguration day

The United States presidential inauguration day used to be on 4th March, but in 1937 the Twentieth Amendment changed the date of inauguration day to 20 January. If that day is a Sunday, inauguration day is moved to 21 January.

Has this day had any significant effect on the stock market?

Let’s see.

The following chart plots the daily returns for the S&P 500 Index for inauguration day (ID) in the years from 1953 to 2009. Note: the chart only includes inauguration days for first terms (on the grounds that the market most likely knows what to expect with second-term presidents).

US president inauguration days (first term) [1953-2009] 1

As can be seen shares have been weak on inauguration days. Since the 1963 inauguration of Lyndon B. Johnson the S&P 500 has been down on every inauguration day.

The following chart plots the average daily returns for the S&P 500 Index for the trading day before inauguration day, the day itself and the day after.

US president inauguration days (first term) [1953-2009] 3

Since 1953 the average daily return for the S&P 500 on inauguration day has been -1.1%. For the day after ID the average daily return is 0.7%, so there does seem to be a partial relief rally afterwards.

Social Share Toolbar

Nonfarm payroll

There are many statistics released every month by the U.S. government that investors follow to assess the strength of economy, but one of the most important and widely followed announcement is the nonfarm payroll.

This statistic is released every month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; it gives an overview of the employment situation in the U.S., not including – as the name suggests – farm employees and also a few others such as employees of the government and non-profit organisations.

The specific release of interest is the Commissioner’s Statement on The Employment Situation and the key figure is usually in the first line. For example, the statement of 7 August 2015 starts,

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in July..

It is the monthly change in employment (rather than the overall employment number) – and the deviation from the expected figure – that is watched closely.

The monthly nonfarm payroll statistic can have a large impact on financial markets, primarily the US dollar, but also equities and gold. Regarding foreign exchange there has been a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index. Below we will look at the impact on equities.

Nonfarm payroll and equities

The nonfarm payroll statistic is reported monthly, usually on the first Friday of the month. The following chart shows the average daily returns of the S&P 500 Index on the three days around the announcement date:

  • NFP(-1): the average daily return on the day before the announcement
  • NFP(0): on the day of the announcement
  • NFP(+1): one day after the announcement

The results of analysis for two periods are shown:

  • dark bars: 1990-2015
  • light bars: 2006-2015

S&P 500 average daily returns around nonfarm payroll report

The analysis shows that since 1990 the S&P 500 Index on average experiences a negative return (-0.066% ) on the day before the nonfarm payroll announcement, a positive return (+0.068%) on the day of the release, and again a negative return (-0.004%) the day afterwards.

In the last ten years, 2006-2015, the behaviour profile has largely been the same, except the average positive return has been less on NFP day, and the negative return greater the day after.

For reference the average daily return on the S&P 500 Index for all days from 1990 has been 0.03%.

Ref: Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation


 Extract taken from the newly published UK Stock Market Almanac 2016.

Order your copy now!

Social Share Toolbar

Index changes (S&P 500) – paper review

The S&P 500 Index Effect describes the tendency for companies joining the S&P 500 Index to experience a positive and permanent impact on their share prices and betas.

Academic research on the topic has addressed:

  1. Whether the effect actually exists and, if it does, if the effect is symmetric (i.e. do companies leaving the index experience a fall in price and beta), and whether the effect is permanent.
  2. What causes the effect
  3. Are these S&P 500  index changes information-free events
  4. The effect on index funds

This article presents a brief review and listing of academic papers on the S&P 500 Index Effect.


1. Form of the effect

The following papers found that the share prices of companies joining the S&P 500 Index experienced positive abnormal returns and that this effect was permanent: Beneish and Whaley (1997), Beneish and Whaley (2002), Chen, Noronha and Singal (2004), Cai (2007), Kappou, Brooks and Ward (2008) and Hrazdil and Scott (2009).

While some found the effect on price only temporary: Harris and Gurel (1986), Lynch and Mendenhall (1997) and Pruitt and Wei (1989).

Some found the effect asymmetric, whereby prices did not fall for companies leaving the S&P 500: Chen, Noronha and Singal (2004) and Zhou (2011).

After inclusion in the index these papers found that comovement (beta) increased: Barberis, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005), Kasch and Sarkar (2011) and Kasch and Sarkar (2012).

2. Causes of the effect

Several possible causes for the effect have been proposed-

The excess demand is due to indexing in the presence of downward sloping demand curves: Shleifer (1986), Beneish and Whaley (1996), Lynch and Mendenhall (1997) and Wurgler and Zhuravskaya (2002).

The bid-ask spread decreases which results in improved liquidity: Hegde and McDermott (2003) and Erwin and Miller (1998) .

Investor awareness increases: Dhillon and Johnson (1991), Chen, Noronha and Singal (2004), Elliott, Van Ness, Walker and Wan (2006) and Xie (2013).

Analyst coverage increases: Kalok Chan and Hung Wan Kot and Gordon Y.N. Tang (2013).

Operating performance of the companies improves: Denis, McConnell, Ovtchinnikov and Yu (2003), Kalok Chan and Hung Wan Kot and Gordon Y.N. Tang (2013), Jain (1987) and Dhillon and Johnson (1991).

3. An information-free event?

The following found that inclusion in the S&P 500 Index was not an information-free event: Geppert, Ivanov and Karels (2011), Gygax and Otchere (2010), Cai (2007) and Denis, McConnell, Ovtchinnikov and Yu (2003).

4. The effect on index funds

The following papers looked at the effect of index changes on index funds: Madhavan and Ming (2002), Chen, Noronha and Singal (2006), Dunham and Simpson (2010), Kappou, Brooks and Ward (2010) and Green and Jame (2011).

INDEX (of papers listed below)

[Papers listed in reverse date order; indicates major paper.]

  1. Stock price response to S&P 500 index inclusions: Do options listings and options trading volume matter? [2013]
  2. A comprehensive long-term analysis of S&P 500 index additions and deletions [2013]
  3. Media coverage, analyst recommendation upgrade and information content of inclusions into S&P indexes [2013]
  4. Is There an S&P 500 Index Effect? [2012]
  5. An examination of the information content of S&P 500 index changes: Analysis of systematic risk [2011]
  6. Strategic trading by index funds and liquidity provision around S&P 500 index additions [2011]
  7. Comovement Revisited [2011]
  8. Asymmetric Changes in Stock Prices and Investor Recognition Around Revisions to the S&P 500 Index [2011]
  9. Do Index Fund Managers Trade Opportunistically Around Index Changes? An Empirical Examination of S&P 500 Index Funds [2010]
  10. Analysis of the probability of deletion of S&P 500 companies: Survival analysis and neural networks approach [2010]
  11. S&P 500 Index Inclusions and Analysts’ Forecast Optimism [2010]
  12. The S&P500 index effect reconsidered: Evidence from overnight and intraday stock price performance and volume [2010]
  13. Index composition changes and the cost of incumbency [2010]
  14. S&P 500 Index Revisited: Do Index Inclusion Announcements Convey Information about Firms’ Future Performance? [2009]
  15. The Effect of Demand on Stock Prices: Evidence from the S&P Index Float Adjustment [2008]
  16. A re-examination of the index effect: Gambling on additions to and deletions from the S&P 500′s ‘gold seal’ [2008]
  17. What’s in the News? Information Content of S&P 500 Additions [2007]
  18. What Drives the S&P 500 Inclusion Effect? An Analytical Survey [2006]
  19. Index Changes and Losses to Index Fund Investors [2006]
  20. The addition and deletion effects of the standard & poor’s 500 index and its dynamic evolvement from 1990 to 2002: demand curves, market efficiency, information, volume and return [2006]
  21. Comovement [2005]
  22. The Price Response to S&P 500 Index Additions and Deletions: Evidence of Asymmetry and a New Explanation [2004]
  23. The liquidity effects of revisions to the S&P 500 index: an empirical analysis [2003]
  24. Price Pressure on the NYSE and Nasdaq: Evidence from S&P 500 Index Changes [2003]
  25. S&P 500 Index Additions and Earnings Expectations [2003]
  26. S&P 500 Index Replacements [2002]
  27. The Hidden Costs of Index Rebalancing: A Case Study of the S&P 500 Composition Changes of July 19, 2002 [2002]
  28. Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks? [2002]
  29. Price Effects of Addition or Deletion from the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index: Evidence of Increasing Market Efficiency [2001]
  30. The liquidity effects associated with addition of a stock to the S&P 500 index: evidence from bid/ask spreads [1998]
  31. A Scorecard from the S&P Game [1997]
  32. New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Charges in the S&P 500 Index [1997]
  33. An Anatomy of the “S&P Game”: The Effects of Changing the Rules [1996]
  34. Changes in the Standard and Poor’s 500 List [1991]
  35. Institutional Ownership and Changes in the S&P 500 [1989]
  36. The Effect on Stock Price of Inclusion in or Exclusion from the S&P 500 [1987]
  37. Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures [1986]
  38. Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down? [1986]
  39. Does Delisting from the S&P 500 Affect Stock Price? [1986]


Stock price response to S&P 500 index inclusions: Do options listings and options trading volume matter?
Authors [Year]: Yangyang Chen and Constantine Koutsantony and Cameron Truong and Madhu Veeraraghavan [2013]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23, pp379–401
Abstract: This study investigates the stock price response to Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index inclusions during the period 1996–2010 and the role of options listings and options trading volume with regard to the information content of index inclusion announcements. Specifically, we address the following questions: (1) Is the magnitude of abnormal returns from the announcements of S&P 500 inclusions significantly lower for stocks with options listings? and (2) Is the magnitude of abnormal returns from the announcements of S&P 500 inclusions significantly lower for stocks with a high level of options trading volume? Our findings indicate that options listings themselves are not related to the magnitude of abnormal returns from the announcements of S&P 500 inclusions. We also find that greater levels of options trading volume do not convey private information about the S&P 500 index changes. We document that any measurable impact of options trading on the stock price response to S&P 500 inclusion announcements lies primarily in the level of abnormal options trading volume in the period immediately preceding the announcements.
Ref: AA645

Continue reading

Social Share Toolbar

Spirax-Sarco Engineering [SPX] – 54 years on the LSE

On this day in 1959 Spirax-Sarco Engineering listed on the LSE.

The following chart plots the average monthly out-performance of the shares over the FTSE 100 Index since 1988. For example, on average Spirax-Sarco Engineering has out-performed the FTSE 100 by 5.0 percentage points in March.

Average monthly performance of Spirax-Sarco Engineering [SPX] relative to the FTSE 100 Index (1988-2012)

Observations:

  1. The strongest month for Spirax-Sarco Engineering shares relative to the market has been March (the shares have out-performed the market in this month in 20 of the last 23 years).
  2. The weakest month for Spirax-Sarco Engineering relative to the market has been July (the shares have only out-performed the market in this month in 10 of the past 24 years).

Spirax-Sarco Engineering is in the FTSE 350 Industrial Engineering [NMX2750] sector.

Social Share Toolbar

Industrial Engineering sector monthly seasonality analysis – strong for first five months of the year

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Industrial Engineering sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Industrial Engineering sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the Industrial Engineering sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 1.5 percentage points in January.

Observations:

  1. The sector is strong relative to the whole market in the first five months of the year.
  2. The strongest months are March and April – the sector has under-performed the market only twice in the past 13 years in April.
  3. The weakest month has been September – the sector has out-performed the market only four times in this month in the last 14 years.

The seven stocks in the FTSE 350 Industrial Engineering sector [NMX2750] are-

Bodycote [BOY] Rotork [ROR]
Fenner [FENR] Sprax-Sarco [SPX]
IMI [IMI] Weir Group [WEIR]
Melrose [MRO]
Social Share Toolbar