To quickly recap a previous post, the FTSE 100 Index was launched in 1984 with a value of 1000 and closed 2013 at 6749. This is an increase of 575% over the 30 years, giving an annual growth of 6.57%.
The following chart shows the price performance of the FTSE 100 Index 1984-2013. A simple linear trendline has been added.
The trendline calculates a value of 6695 for the end of 2013, which is just 54 points away from the actual value (less than 1% difference). As can be seen in the chart, the FTSE 100 Index is pretty much bang on its long-term (since 1984) trend.
The following chart plots the FTSE 100 Index against the real index (inflation-adjusted) for 1984-2013.
Inflation-adjusted the FTSE 100 Index closed 2013 at 2304 – an increase of 130.4% on the starting value 30 years ago, an average annual growth rate of 2.8%.
Comparison with S&P 500 and gold
The following chart plots the FTSE 100 Index against the S&P 500 Index and gold. The three series have been re-based to start at 100 for ease of comparison.
The above chart is not that useful as the S&P 500 Index and gold are both priced in dollars, so the following chart plots them in sterling terms against the FTSE 100 Index.
What is the effect on equity markets when sovereign debt loses its AAA rating?
The following chart shows the effect on five equity markets when the related sovereign debt lost its triple-A rating.
The date of the downgrade is taken as the first date that the sovereign lost its AAA rating. For example, Moodys downgraded Japan in November 1998 but Standard & Poor’s kept Japan at its highest rating of triple-A until February 2001. In this study the first date (November 1998) is used.
The time period analysed is from two months before the downgrade to 12 months after. The downgrade is announced in week 9 – as indicated by the dotted line in the chart.
The five indices are indexed to 100 at the end of week 9.
In the short term (two months) following the downgrade all the equity markets except Japan performed strongly.
After the first two months, Japan then rebounded strongly, although the French market then suffered a period of weakness.
12 months after the downgrade all equity markets were higher, with an average increase of 17.7% from the time of the downgrade.
It’s generally well known that the UK market closely follows the movements of the US market. But it hasn’t always been like this.
The following animated graphic shows the correlation of monthly returns of the FTSE All Share and S&P 500 indices for the decades since 1950.
[NB. Press Ctrl-F5 to refresh page and restart animation.]
In the 1950s and 1960s there was negligible correlation between the UK and US markets on a monthly basis. The US market might rise one month and the UK would respond by rising or falling – there was no connection.
In the 1970s some evidence of correlation can be seen for the first time – although it was still very weak.
It was not until the 1980s that the correlation became statistically significant. There could be many reasons for this increase in correlation, but one contributing factor was undoubtedly the increasing presence of computers in trading rooms. And, of course, the October crash in 1987 would have alerted many for the first time to the scale of the inter-connectedness of worldwide markets.
Correlation stayed at a similar level in the 1990s to that reached in the previous decade.
But it has been in recent years that the level of correlation has soared – to almost double the level seen in the 1990s. This can be clearly seen in the last two charts, where the points are closely aligned along the line of best fit.
The level of correlation between the UK and US market is now so high that the usefulness of independent analysis of the larger-cap UK market indices must now be moot.
The following chart shows the returns on a range of international stock markets and commodities in 2012.
The German market was the strongest (+29.1%), followed by the Asian markets of India, Japan, and Hong Kong.
The FTSE 100 was ranked 22 out of the 25 markets appearing here.
Over half the markets increased by more than 10% in 2012.
The following chart shows a sample of currency moves against the British pound in the year. For example, the British pound increased 16.5% against the Japanese Yen, and fell in value 6.7% against the Polish Zloty.
Equity and commodity markets (sterling)
The following chart shows the returns on the same range of markets shown above, but this time in sterling terms (i.e. showing the returns for a UK investor).
The German market remains the strongest for 2012, with its returns reduced from 29.1% to 26.4% due to the slight appreciation of GBP against EUR over the year.
A big difference is the return for the Nikkei Index in sterling terms – falling from 22.9% to 5.5%.
In sterling terms the FTSE 100 climbs from 22nd position to 15th.
And in sterling terms the FTSE 250 Index climbs to 2nd position.