Last trading day of September

Next Monday will be the last trading day (LTD) of September.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average fallen 0.05% on the LTD of September, which makes it 10th in the ranking of month LTDs.

Since 2000 the average change on the September LTD has been even weaker at -0.35%, the market has only risen three times in the last 13 years on the this day, making it the weakest LTD of all.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every September LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of the month for September

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Chemical sector starts its 9-month out-performance of the FTSE 100

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. The following chart looks at the chemicals sector.

The chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Chemicals sector over the FTSE 100 Index since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the chemicals sector has out-performed the FTSE Index by 1.5 percentage points in January.

Observations:

  1. The strongest month for the chemicals sector has been July; while the weakest has been September.
  2. From November, the chemicals sector has a continuous 9-month run of out-performing the general market.

The seven stocks in the FTSE 350 Chemicals sector [NMX1350] are:

Croda Intl. [CRDA] Morgan Crucible [MGCR]
Elementis [ELM] Victrex [VCT]
Filtrona [FLTR] Yule Catto [YULC]
Johnson Matthey [JMAT]
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Last trading day of September

Tomorrow (Friday 28 Sep) will be the last trading day (LTD) of September.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Historically, the September LTD has been one of the weakest monthly LTDs in the year. Since 1984 only three months have an average negative return for their LTDs, one of which is September. The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every September LTD since 1984.

Last trading day for Septembers (1984-2012)

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