The Santa Rally Portfolio 2015

The Santa Rally describes the tendency of the stock market to perform strongly in the final two weeks of the year (more info).

The Santa Rally Portfolio comprises the 10 best performing FTSE 350 shares over the Santa Rally period (i.e. roughly the last two weeks of the year) over the last 10 years. The characteristics of the 10 stocks in the portfolio are:

  1. All 10 stocks have positive returns over the two-week Santa Rally period for every year since 2005.
  2. The 10 stocks have the highest average returns of all FTSE 350 stocks over the Santa Rally periods of the last 10 years.

The following table lists these ten shares and their average returns over the Santa Rally periods for the last 10 years.

Company TIDM Avg Rtn(%)
Ashtead Group 7.3
FirstGroup 6.6
Vesuvius 6.4
Croda International 5.9
Informa 5.3
British Land Co 4.9
Spectris 4.8
Pennon Group 4.4
G4S 4.4
Balfour Beatty 4.2

The following chart compares the performance of the Santa Rally Portfolio with the FTSE 350 Index for the past 10 years.

Santa Rally Portfolio [2015]Notes:

  1. The FTSE 350 Index has had positive returns in every Santa Rally period since 2005 except 2012. The average return for the Index over this period for the last 10 years is 2.2%. Last year, in 2014, although the Index was down 1.7% in December as a whole, it actually rose 4.3% in the second two weeks of the month.
  2. The Santa Rally Portfolio has had positive returns every year since 2005. The average return for the Portfolio over the last 10 years is 5.4%, thus out-performing the FTSE 350 each year by 3.2 percentage points.

More on the Santa Rally.

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2Q 2015 UK equity markets performance

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in the second quarter 2015.

2015 2Q UK equity markets returns

As in the first quarter, small caps easily out-performed large caps.

Data

The data for the above chart is shown in the following table.

Index 2Q 2015 Rtn(%)
FTSE Fledgling 7.7
FTSE AIM All-Share 5.5
FTSE AIM 100 4.8
FTSE 250 2.6
FTSE SmallCap 1.7
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 0.1
FTSE All-Share – Total Return -1.6
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -1.7
FTSE TechMARK All Share -1.9
FTSE All-Share -2.5
FTSE 350 -2.7
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return -2.8
FTSE4Good UK -2.9
FTSE 100 -3.7
FTSE4Good UK 50 -4.0

1H 2015

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in the first half of 2015.

2015 1H UK equity markets returns

 

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2015 1Q market review – comparative performance of UK equity indices

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in the first quarter 2015.

UK indices comparative returns 2015 1Q

The relative performance was fairly typical for a first quarter (e.g. 2014 1Q). For example, small and mid-caps (e.g. FTSE Fledgling, FTSE 250 and FTSE SmallCap) greatly outperformed the large caps (FTSE 100).

Data

The data for the above chart is shown in the following table.

Index 2015 1Q Rtn(%)
FTSE Fledgling 7.4
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 7.3
FTSE 250 6.2
FTSE TechMARK All Share 6.1
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 6.1
FTSE SmallCap 5.3
FTSE AIM 100 4.8
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 4.7
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 4.2
FTSE All-Share 3.7
FTSE4Good UK 3.7
FTSE 350 3.6
FTSE 100 3.2
FTSE4Good UK 50 3.0
FTSE AIM All-Share 2.0

 

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Bounceback Portfolio 2014 – Result

The idea of the Bounceback Portfolio is that a portfolio of the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in one year has historically beaten the index in the first three months of the following year. The selection of the Bounceback Portfolio stocks for 2014 was described in this earlier post.

The following chart shows the performance of the stocks in the Bounceback Portfolio 2014 over the first three months of the year.

Performance of Bounceback Portfolio 2014The portfolio as a whole increased 9.2% in the first quarter 2014, which beat the -1.6% return for the FTSE 350 Index.

This means the Bounceback Portfolio strategy has now beaten the index in 12 of the past 13 years (the one failure was last year).

Other posts on the Bounceback Portfolio.

 

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2014 1Q market review – comparative performance of UK equity indices

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in the first quarter 2014.

UK indices comparative returns 2014 1Qb

Continuing the trend of 2013, the FTSE Fledgling, 250 and Small Cap indices out-performed the FTSE 100.

The data for the above chart is shown in the following table.

Index 2014 1Q Rtn(%)
FTSE Fledgling 5.0
FTSE 250 2.1
FTSE SmallCap 0.9
FTSE AIM All-Share 0.0
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -0.3
FTSE All-Share – Total Return -0.6
FTSE TechMARK All Share -0.6
FTSE AIM 100 -1.2
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return -1.3
FTSE All-Share -1.5
FTSE 350 -1.6
FTSE4Good UK -1.8
FTSE 100 -2.2
FTSE4Good UK 50 -2.8

 

 

 

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2014 1Q market review – comparative performance of FTSE 350 sectors

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 stock sectors in the first quarter 2014.

FTSE 350 sector performance 2014 1Q26 of the 38 sectors out-performed the FTSE 100 Index in the first quarter of 2014.

The data for the above chart are given in the following table.

FTSE 350 Sector TIDM Rtn 2014 1Q (%)
General Retailers 11.2
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 11.1
Real Estate Investment & Services 7.8
Construction & Materials 7.4
Health Care Equipment & Services 7.1
Real Estate Investment Trusts 5.3
Electricity 5.0
Automobiles & Parts 4.6
Household Goods 4.1
Food Producers 3.4
Tobacco 3.2
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 3.0
Industrial Engineering 2.5
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 2.5
Chemicals 2.2
Financial Services 2.2
Software & Computer Services 2.2
Support Services 1.8
Industrial Transportation 1.7
Mining 1.4
Nonlife Insurance 1.2
Travel & Leisure 0.5
Equity Investment Instruments 0.3
Forestry & Paper 0.3
Fixed Line Telecommunications 0.2
Life Insurance -1.9
FTSE 100 -2.2
Oil & Gas Producers -2.6
Technology Hardware & Equipment -4.0
Beverages -5.7
Media -5.9
Electronic & Electrical Equipment -6.1
Personal Goods -6.2
Banks -8.8
General Industrials -8.8
Aerospace & Defense -9.3
Mobile Telecommunications -10.3
Food & Drug Retailers -11.0
Industrial Metals -24.7

 

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2013 market review – comparative performance of FTSE 350 sectors

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 stock sectors in 2013.

FTSE 350 sector returns in 201326 of the 38 sectors out-performed the FTSE 100 Index in the year, with 24 sectors increasing over 20%. Only three sectors saw negative returns in 2013.

The data for the above chart are given in the following table.

FTSE 350 Sector TIDM Rtn 2013 (%)
Automobiles & Parts 63.2
Fixed Line Telecommunications 61.8
Forestry & Paper 56.2
Mobile Telecommunications 52.7
Financial Services 42.3
Real Estate Investment & Services 41.4
Travel & Leisure 38.1
Aerospace & Defense 37.6
Life Insurance 36.0
Household Goods 35.1
Technology Hardware & Equipment 35.1
Media 34.9
General Industrials 33.9
General Retailers 32.6
Industrial Transportation 30.7
Industrial Engineering 27.5
Support Services 26.6
Personal Goods 26.2
Software & Computer Services 25.6
Health Care Equipment & Services 25.0
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 24.8
Construction & Materials 23.4
Chemicals 21.5
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 21.3
Real Estate Investment Trusts 15.1
Equity Investment Instruments 14.6
FTSE 100 14.4
Food Producers 13.7
Beverages 11.7
Nonlife Insurance 11.4
Oil & Gas Producers 8.1
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 8.0
Banks 7.8
Food & Drug Retailers 6.5
Electricity 3.6
Tobacco 2.3
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution -6.3
Mining -16.4
Industrial Metals -48.6

Performance of UK sectors in 2012

 

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2013 market review – comparative performance of UK equity indices

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in 2013.

UK markets annual returns 2013As can be seen, the FTSE 100 Index had the lowest returns of the indices. The strongest performance was from small and mid cap indices.

The data for the above chart is shown in the following table.

Index 2013 Rtn(%)
FTSE Fledgling 35.8
FTSE TechMARK All Share 31.9
FTSE SmallCap 29.6
FTSE 250 28.8
FTSE AIM 100 22.6
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 20.8
FTSE AIM All-Share 20.3
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 18.7
FTSE4Good UK 18.4
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 18.3
FTSE All-Share 16.7
FTSE 350 16.4
FTSE4Good UK 50 15.9
FTSE 100 14.4

 

 

 

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Performance of UK markets in 1H 2013 – a good six months for small and mid-caps

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in the first six months of 2013.

Data for the above chart-

Name TIDM Change 1H 2013(%)
FTSE Fledgling 13.9
FTSE TechMARK All Share 13.3
FTSE Small Cap 11.6
FTSE 250 11.5
FTSE All Share – Total Return 8.5
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 8.4
FTSE4Good UK 7.3
FTSE All-Share 6.3
FTSE 350 6.2
FTSE 100 5.4
FTSE AIM 100 -0.1
FTSE AIM All-Share -2.2

 

 

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