Last trading day of April

Tomorow will be the last trading day (LTD) of April.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak.

Since 1984 the index average return on the April LTD has been 0.17%. From 2000 the index average return on this day has been weaker at 0.09%.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every April LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of April (1984-2013) [2014]

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Last trading day of March

Next Monday will be the last trading day (LTD) of March.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak.

Since 1984 the index average return on the March LTD has been 0.12%. Since 2000 the index average return on this day is 0.27% (of course, this figure is skewed by the huge 4% rise in the index on the LTD of March in 2009).

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every March LTD since 1984.
Last trading day of March  (1984-2013) [2014]

 

 

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Last trading day of February

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of February.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This can clearly be seen in the case of February from the chart below. From 1984 to 1994 the FTSE 100 only fell twice on the last trading of February; but in the last ten years the index has only risen twice on the February LTD.

Since 1984 the index average return on the February LTD has been -0.07% (one of only three months with a negative LTD average return). Since 2000, the index average return on this day is even worse at -0.32%

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every February LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 last trading day of February (1984-2013)

 

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Last trading day of January

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of January.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak.This can clearly be seen in the case of January from the chart below. From 1984 to 1999 the FTSE 100 only fell twice on the last trading of January. But since year 2000 the market fallen more often than risen on this day.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.19% on the LTD of January, with positive returns in 62% of all years, which makes the January LTD the third strongest month LTD in the year. However, as indicated above, things have changed since 2000: the average LTD return in January has been -0.17% making it the third weakest month LTD in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every January LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 Last Trading Day January (1984-2013) [2014]

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Last trading day of December

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of December.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.04% on the LTD of December, with positive returns in 48% of all years, which makes the December LTD the fourth weakest month LTD in the year. Since year 2000 the market has risen on this day in only 5 years.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every December LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 Last Trading Day  for December (1984-2012) [2013]

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Last trading day of November

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of November.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average fallen 0.12% on the LTD of November, with positive returns in just 45% of all years, which makes the November LTD one of the three weakest month LTDs in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every November LTD since 1984.
FTSE 100 Last Trading Day for November (1984-2012)

 

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Last trading day of October

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of October.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.51% on the LTD of October, with positive returns in 72% of all years, which makes it easily the strongest LTD of any month in the year.

However, since 2000 the October has not been so strong: chalking up an average increase of 0.07% on the day.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every October LTD since 1984.

 

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Last trading day of September

Next Monday will be the last trading day (LTD) of September.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average fallen 0.05% on the LTD of September, which makes it 10th in the ranking of month LTDs.

Since 2000 the average change on the September LTD has been even weaker at -0.35%, the market has only risen three times in the last 13 years on the this day, making it the weakest LTD of all.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every September LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of the month for September

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Last trading day of July

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of July.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.14% on the LTD of July, which makes it 5th in the ranking of month LTDs.

Since 2000 the average change on the July LTD has been 0.15% – largely unchanged, with positive returns in 46% of those 13 years.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every July LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of July for FTSE 100 Index

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Last trading day of June

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of June.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.20% on the LTD of June, which makes it 2nd in the ranking of month LTDs.

Since 2000, however, the June LTD has been even stronger with an average return of 0.53% on the day – making it the strongest month LTD of the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every June LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 Index, last trading day of June

 

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