Last trading day of October

Next Monday will be the last trading day (LTD) of October.

Historically, the last trading day of October has been the strongest LTD of any month in the year. Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.46% on the LTD of October, with positive returns in 69% of all years.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every October LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 last trading day of October [1984-2015]

As can be seen on the chart the market only fell twice on the October LTD in the 19 years from 1984 to 2002. One possible reason for this may have been that November is the start of the strong six month period of the year (this is part of the Sell in May effect), and investors could have been buying equities at this time in anticipation of that.

However, in recent years this pattern of behaviour has changed. Quite dramatically so – in the last seven years the market has only risen once on the October LTD. Last year (2015) the FTSE 100 Index was down 0.5% on the last trading day of October.

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Last trading day of January

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of January.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.14% on the LTD of January, with positive returns in 58% of all years (although since 2000 this has fallen to just 31%).

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every January LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of January (1984-2015)

 

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Last trading day of May

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of May.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.02% on the LTD of May, with positive returns in just 48% of all years, which makes it one of the weaker month LTDs in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every May LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of May (1984-2014)

 

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Last trading day of March

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of March.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.11% on the LTD of March, with positive returns in just 50% of all years, which makes it the sixth strongest LTD of any month in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every March LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of March (1984-2014) [2015]

 

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Last trading day of February

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of February.

Since 1984 the market has on average fallen 0.06% on the LTD of February, with positive returns in just 43% of all years, which makes it the third weakest LTD of any month in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every February LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of February (1984-2014) [2015]

 

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Last trading day of October

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of October.

The LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.47% on the LTD of October, with positive returns in 70% of all years, which makes it easily the strongest LTD of any month in the year.

However, as can be seen in the chart, the behaviour of the October LTD has changed markedly over time. For the 19 years from 1984 the market only fell twice on the October LTD; but in the 11 years since 2003 the market has only risen significantly on this day in three years.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every October LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of October (1984-2013) [2014]

 

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Last trading day of September

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of September.

Since 1984 the market has on average fallen 0.07% on the LTD of September, which makes it the second weakest LTD of the year. And returns have been positive in September since 1984 in only 43% of years.

Since 2000 the average change on the September LTD has been even weaker at -0.38%, the market has only risen three times in the last 14 years on the this day, making it the weakest LTD of all.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every September LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of September (1984-2013) [2014]

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Last trading day of July

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of July.

Since 1984 the index average return on the July LTD has been 0.16%, which makes it the fifth strongest month LTD of the year. The probability of a increase on the July LTD is 47%

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every July LTD since 1984.
Last trading day of July (1984-2013) [2014]

 

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Last trading day of June

Today is the last trading day (LTD) of June.

Since 1984 the index average return on the June LTD has been 0.18%, which makes it the third strongest month LTD of the year. The probability of a increase on the June LTD is 67%

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every June LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of June (1984-2013) [2014]

 

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Last trading day of May

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of May.

As explained in the 2014 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak.

Since 1984 the index average return on the May LTD has been 0.04%, which is about same as the average daily return on all days of the year, and makes it the eighth strongest month LTD of the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every May LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of May (1984-2013) [2014]

 

 

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