Does the price of gold exhibit a monthly seasonality?
[Here we update our previous analysis of gold seasonality.]
On 17 March 1968 the system that fixed the price of gold at USD35.00 collapsed and the price of gold was allowed to fluctuate. Let’s have a quick look at the chart to see how gold has performed since it floated in 1968.
Since 1968 when gold floated, its price has grown at a CAGR of 7.7%.
Let’s look now at its monthly seasonality.
The following chart plots the average price returns for gold by month since 1968. For example, since 1968 the average return of the gold price in January has been 1.2%.
And the following chart plots the proportion of months that have seen positive returns. For example, in 60% of years since 1968 gold has had positive returns in February.
It can be seen that since 1968 gold has on average been strong in February, September and December. The weak months for gold have been March and October.
This profile of behaviour would seem to have some persistency as the same pattern can be seen for the more recent period 2000-2017, for example the following chart plots the average month returns from 2000.
The main new features recently have been the strength of gold in the months January, August and November, and the weakness in December.
Gold and equities
The following chart shows the ratio of the FTSE All Share Index to gold (priced in sterling) since 1968. One can regard the chart as the UK equity market priced in gold.
The ratio peaked at 18.8 in July 99 and then fell to a low of 2.3 in September 2011. Since 1968 the ratio average is 6.1
The above is an extract from the newly published UK Stock Market Almanac 2018.