Bounceback Portfolio 2018

The Bounceback Portfolio invests in the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks of the previous year and holds them for the 3-month period, January-March. Since 2003, the Bounceback Portfolio has under-performed the index only twice (in 2013 and 2015).

Further information and track record on the Bounceback Portfolio can found here.

The following table lists the ten worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in 2017. These are the ten stocks that will comprise the 2018 Bounceback Portfolio.

Company TIDM 2017 Return (%)
Provident Financial PFG -68.5
Acacia Mining ACA -46.9
Dixons Carphone DC. -43.9
Centrica CNA -41.4
Petrofac Ltd PFC -41.3
Hikma Pharmaceuticals HIK -40.1
AA Ltd AA. -38.7
Saga SAGA -35.4
Inmarsat ISAT -34.7
Go-Ahead Group (The) GOG -33.6

 

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Go-Ahead Group (The) [GOG] – 20 years on the LSE

On this day in 1994 Go-Ahead Group (The) listed on the LSE.

Monthly seasonality of Go-Ahead Group (The)

The following chart plots the average monthly out-performance of the shares over the FTSE 100 Index since 1988. For example, on average Go-Ahead Group (The) has out-performed the FTSE 100 by 1.9 percentage points in December.
Average monthly performance of Go-Ahead Group (The) [GOG] relative to the FTSE 100 Index (1988-2013)

Observations:

  1. The strongest month for Go-Ahead Group (The) shares relative to the market has been December (the shares have out-performed the market in this month in 14 of the last 20 years).
  2. The weakest month for Go-Ahead Group (The) relative to the market has been November (the shares have only out-performed the market in this month in 9 of the past 19 years).

Go-Ahead Group (The) is in the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure [NMX5750] sector.

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Travel & Leisure sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Travel & Leisure sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.1 percentage points in November.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been November and December – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in November in the last 14 years.
  2. The sector has no consistently weak months; although the sector has under-performed the market by an average of 2.6 percentage points in October, the sector has actually out-performed the market that month in eight of the past 14 years.

The 23 stocks in the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector [NMX5750] are-

Betfair Group [BET] Ladbrokes [LAD]
Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment [BPTY] Marston’s [MARS]
Carnival [CCL] Millennium & Copthorne Hotels [MLC]
Compass Group [CPG] Mitchells & Butlers [MAB]
Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL [DOM] National Express Group [NEX]
easyJet [EZJ] Playtech Ltd [PTEC]
Enterprise Inns [ETI] Rank Group (The) [RNK]
FirstGroup [FGP] Restaurant Group (The) [RTN]
Go-Ahead Group (The) [GOG] Stagecoach Group [SGC]
Greene King [GNK] TUI Travel [TT.]
InterContinental Hotels Group [IHG] Wetherspoon (J D) [JDW]
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA [IAG]
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