Bounceback Portfolio 2014 – Result

The idea of the Bounceback Portfolio is that a portfolio of the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in one year has historically beaten the index in the first three months of the following year. The selection of the Bounceback Portfolio stocks for 2014 was described in this earlier post.

The following chart shows the performance of the stocks in the Bounceback Portfolio 2014 over the first three months of the year.

Performance of Bounceback Portfolio 2014The portfolio as a whole increased 9.2% in the first quarter 2014, which beat the -1.6% return for the FTSE 350 Index.

This means the Bounceback Portfolio strategy has now beaten the index in 12 of the past 13 years (the one failure was last year).

Other posts on the Bounceback Portfolio.

 

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2014 1Q market review – comparative performance of FTSE 350 sectors

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 stock sectors in the first quarter 2014.

FTSE 350 sector performance 2014 1Q26 of the 38 sectors out-performed the FTSE 100 Index in the first quarter of 2014.

The data for the above chart are given in the following table.

FTSE 350 Sector TIDM Rtn 2014 1Q (%)
General Retailers 11.2
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 11.1
Real Estate Investment & Services 7.8
Construction & Materials 7.4
Health Care Equipment & Services 7.1
Real Estate Investment Trusts 5.3
Electricity 5.0
Automobiles & Parts 4.6
Household Goods 4.1
Food Producers 3.4
Tobacco 3.2
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 3.0
Industrial Engineering 2.5
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 2.5
Chemicals 2.2
Financial Services 2.2
Software & Computer Services 2.2
Support Services 1.8
Industrial Transportation 1.7
Mining 1.4
Nonlife Insurance 1.2
Travel & Leisure 0.5
Equity Investment Instruments 0.3
Forestry & Paper 0.3
Fixed Line Telecommunications 0.2
Life Insurance -1.9
FTSE 100 -2.2
Oil & Gas Producers -2.6
Technology Hardware & Equipment -4.0
Beverages -5.7
Media -5.9
Electronic & Electrical Equipment -6.1
Personal Goods -6.2
Banks -8.8
General Industrials -8.8
Aerospace & Defense -9.3
Mobile Telecommunications -10.3
Food & Drug Retailers -11.0
Industrial Metals -24.7

 

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2013 market review – comparative performance of FTSE 350 sectors

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 stock sectors in 2013.

FTSE 350 sector returns in 201326 of the 38 sectors out-performed the FTSE 100 Index in the year, with 24 sectors increasing over 20%. Only three sectors saw negative returns in 2013.

The data for the above chart are given in the following table.

FTSE 350 Sector TIDM Rtn 2013 (%)
Automobiles & Parts 63.2
Fixed Line Telecommunications 61.8
Forestry & Paper 56.2
Mobile Telecommunications 52.7
Financial Services 42.3
Real Estate Investment & Services 41.4
Travel & Leisure 38.1
Aerospace & Defense 37.6
Life Insurance 36.0
Household Goods 35.1
Technology Hardware & Equipment 35.1
Media 34.9
General Industrials 33.9
General Retailers 32.6
Industrial Transportation 30.7
Industrial Engineering 27.5
Support Services 26.6
Personal Goods 26.2
Software & Computer Services 25.6
Health Care Equipment & Services 25.0
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 24.8
Construction & Materials 23.4
Chemicals 21.5
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 21.3
Real Estate Investment Trusts 15.1
Equity Investment Instruments 14.6
FTSE 100 14.4
Food Producers 13.7
Beverages 11.7
Nonlife Insurance 11.4
Oil & Gas Producers 8.1
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 8.0
Banks 7.8
Food & Drug Retailers 6.5
Electricity 3.6
Tobacco 2.3
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution -6.3
Mining -16.4
Industrial Metals -48.6

Performance of UK sectors in 2012

 

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Bounceback Portfolio 2013 – Result

The idea of the Bounceback Portfolio is that a portfolio of the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in one year has historically beaten the index in the first three months of the following year. This is explained in further detail in the UK Stockmarket Almanac 2013 and in this post at the beginning of the year.

The following chart shows the performance of the stocks in the Bounceback Portfolio 2013

The portfolio as a whole increased 2.4% in the first quarter 2013, but this was less than the FTSE 350 Index, which rose 9.2% in the same period. This is the first time since 2002 that the Bounceback Portfolio has under-performed the index in the first quarter.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing:  obviously the time to take profits was just two weeks into the year.


Dogs of the Dow

A related strategy is the Dogs of the Dow, where the ten stocks in the Dow Jones Index  with the highest dividend yield on the final day of the year are bought. So far, this portfolio is faring better than the above Bounce back Portfolio.

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Sector performance in first quarter 2013

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 sectors in the first three months of 2013.
FTSE 350 Sector Performance first quarter 2013

The data is given in the following table.

TIDM Sector Price Chng (%)
Forestry & Paper 33.5
Household Goods 23.9
Aerospace & Defense 22.5
Mobile Telecommunications 20.8
Fixed Line Telecommunications 19.7
Technology Hardware & Equipment 19.4
Beverages 18.4
Financial Services 18.2
Food Producers 17.5
Industrial Engineering 17.3
Support Services 15.8
Automobiles & Parts 15.6
Travel & Leisure 14.4
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 14
Media 13.7
Food & Drug Retailers 12.5
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 12.3
Real Estate Investment & Services 11.9
Software & Computer Services 11.5
Life Insurance 11.3
Construction & Materials 11
Health Care Equipment & Services 9.9
Equity Investment Instruments 9.6
General Industrials 9.6
FTSE 100 8.7
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 8.6
Tobacco 8.5
Personal Goods 8.3
Banks 7.5
Industrial Transportation 7.5
General Retailers 7.3
Chemicals 6.7
Nonlife Insurance 6.3
Electricity 5.7
Oil & Gas Producers 4.3
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 3.1
Real Estate Investment Trusts 0.5
Mining -10.1
Industrial Metals -18.5

 

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Performance of UK markets in 2012 – a good year for small caps

The following chart shows the performance of the main UK stock market indices in 2012.

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Performance of UK sectors in 2012

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 stock sectors in 2012.

29 of the 38 sectors out-performed the FTSE 100 Index, with 26 sectors increasing over 10% in the year.

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