Average market behaviour in July (2015)

The following chart plots the average performance of the FTSE 100 Index during July since 1984.

Average month chart - July (2015)

As can be seen, historically the market tends to rise for the first week, is flat for the following two weeks, falls in the fourth week, but then ends strongly in the final few days.

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FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Quarterly Review – June 2015

After the close on 3 June 2015 FTSE Russell confirmed the following changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The changes will be implemented at the close Friday, 19 June 2015 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 22 June 2015.

FTSE 100

Joining: Inmarsat

Leaving: Aggreko

FTSE 250

Joining: Aldermore Group, Auto Trader Group, B&M European Value Retail, John Laing Group, Onesavings Bank, Shawbrook Group, Wizz Air Holdings, Woodford Patient Capital

Leaving: BlackRock World Mining Trust, De La Rue, Imagination Technologies Group, Infinis Energy, Law Debenture Corp, Personal Assets Trust, RPS Group, Soco International

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First trading day of June

Next Monday will be the first trading day (FTD) of June.

Since 1984 the FTSE 100 Index has on average risen 0.21% on the June FTD, with the month’s return being positive in 55% of years.

The following chart shows the returns for every June FTD since 1984.

First trading day of June (1984-2014)

 

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Last trading day of May

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of May.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.02% on the LTD of May, with positive returns in just 48% of all years, which makes it one of the weaker month LTDs in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every May LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of May (1984-2014)

 

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Last trading day of March

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of March.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.11% on the LTD of March, with positive returns in just 50% of all years, which makes it the sixth strongest LTD of any month in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every March LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of March (1984-2014) [2015]

 

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First trading day of March

Next Monday will be the first trading day (FTD) of March.

The market has a tendency to be strong on the FTD of a month. And this effect has been even more pronounced in recent years.

However, since 1984 the FTSE 100 Index has on average fallen 0.05% on the March FTD, making it the weakest FTD of any month in the year.

The following chart shows the returns for every March FTD since 1984.

First trading day of March (1984-2014) [2015]

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Last trading day of February

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of February.

Since 1984 the market has on average fallen 0.06% on the LTD of February, with positive returns in just 43% of all years, which makes it the third weakest LTD of any month in the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every February LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of February (1984-2014) [2015]

 

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FTSE 100 Index original share constituents

The table below lists the 100 shares that were constituents of the original FTSE 100 Index when it started 3 January 1984.

Allied – Lyons Imperial Chemical Industries
Associated British Foods Imperial Cont. Gas Association
Associated Dairies Group Imperial Group
Barclays Bank Johnson Matthey
Barratt Developments Ladbroke Group
Bass Land Securities
BAT Industries Legal & General Group
Beecham Group Lloyds Bank
Berisford (S. & W.) Lonrho
BICC MEPC
Blue Circle Industries MFI Furniture Group
BOC Group Marks & Spencer
Boots Co. Midland Bank
Bowater Corporation National Westminster Bank
BPB Industries Northern Foods
British & Commonwealth P & O Steam Navigation Co.
British Aerospace Pearson (S.) & Son
British Elect. Traction Co. Pilkington Brothers
British Home Stores Plessey Co.
British Petroleum Prudential Corporation
Britoil RMC Group
BTR Racal Electronics
Burton Group Rank Organisation
Cable & Wireless Reckitt & Colman
Cadbury Schweppes Redland
Commercial Union Assurance Reed International
Consolidated Gold Fields Rio Tinto – Zinc Corporation
Courtaulds Rowntree Mackintosh
Dalgety Royal Bank of Scotland Group
Distillers Co. Royal Insurance
CJ Rothschild Sainsbury (J.)
Edinburgh Investment Trust Scottish & Newcastle Breweries
English China Clays Sears Holdings
Exco International Sedgwick Group
Ferranti Shell Trans. & Trad. Co .
Fisons Smith & Nephew Associated Co’s.
General Accident Fire & Life Standard Chartered Bank
General Electric Standard Telephones & Cables
Glaxo Holdings Sun Alliance & London Insurance
Globe Investment Trust Sun Life Assurance Society
Grand Metropolitan THORN EMI
Great Universal Stores ‘A’ Tarmac
Guardian Royal Exchange Tesco
Guest Keen & Nettlefolds Trafalgar House
Hambro Life Assurance Trusthouse Forte
Hammerson Prop.Inv. & Dev. ‘A’ Ultramar
Hanson Trust Unilever
Harrisons & Crossfield United Biscuits
Hawker Siddeley Group Whitbread & Co. ‘A’
House of Fraser Wimpey (George)

Further info on the original index.

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Average market behaviour in February (2015)

The following chart plots the average performance of the FTSE 100 Index during February since 1984.

Average month chart - February (2015)

As can be seen, historically the market tends to rise for the first two-and-a-half weeks and then drifts lower for the rest of the month.

January 2015

The following chart shows the average performance of the market in January (1984-2014) and overlays the actual performance in January 2015.

Average month chart - January overlay January 2015 (2014)

The market was unusually strong around the third week of the month, which led to its out-performance of the historic average for the month.

 

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