Bounceback Portfolio 2014 – Result

The idea of the Bounceback Portfolio is that a portfolio of the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in one year has historically beaten the index in the first three months of the following year. The selection of the Bounceback Portfolio stocks for 2014 was described in this earlier post.

The following chart shows the performance of the stocks in the Bounceback Portfolio 2014 over the first three months of the year.

Performance of Bounceback Portfolio 2014The portfolio as a whole increased 9.2% in the first quarter 2014, which beat the -1.6% return for the FTSE 350 Index.

This means the Bounceback Portfolio strategy has now beaten the index in 12 of the past 13 years (the one failure was last year).

Other posts on the Bounceback Portfolio.

 

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The Bounceback Portfolio for 2014

The 2013 edition of the Almanac explained the Bounceback Strategy, whereby a portfolio of the 10 worst performing stocks in the FTSE 350 in one year is held for the first three months of the following year.

The following table lists the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in 2013 (i.e. these comprise the Bounceback Portfolio for 2014).

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Kazakhmys -71.9
Fresnillo -59.6
African Barrick Gold Ltd -57.8
Evraz -56.8
Imagination Technologies Group -55.0
Polymetal International -51.1
Perform Group -43.3
Essar Energy -39.3
Antofagasta -37.8
Randgold Resources Ltd -36.3

More on the Bounceback Portfolio.

 

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Oil & Gas Producers sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Oil & Gas Producers sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the Oil & Gas Producers sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.4 percentage points in March.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been March and June – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in March in the last 13 years.
  2. The weakest month has been November – the sector has out-performed the market only six times in march in the last 14 years.

The 13 stocks in the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers sector [NMX0530] are-

Afren [AFR] Ophir Energy [OPHR]
BG Group [BG.] Premier Oil [PMO]
BP [BP.] Royal Dutch Shell [RDSB]
Cairn Energy [CNE] Salamander Energy [SMDR]
EnQuest [ENQ] SOCO International [SIA]
Essar Energy [ESSR] Tullow Oil [TLW]
Heritage Oil Ltd [HOIL]
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