Shares that like/dislike October

Shares that like October

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in October over the last ten years. For example, Tate & Lyle has an average return of 6.1% for the month of October. Each stock has risen in October in nine of the past ten years, while Diageo is the only FTSE 350 stock to have risen in every October for the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Tate & Lyle 6.1
Marks & Spencer Group 5.2
Restaurant Group (The) 3.9
Diageo 3.0

Shares that dislike October

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in October over the last ten years. For example, William Hill has an average return of -4.4% for the month of October. All four stocks have fallen in October in at least eight of the past yen years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
William Hill -4.4
Tullett Prebon -4.2
Centrica -1.6

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong October stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak October stocks by an average of 7.9 percentage points in October for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike October

Shares that like October

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in October over the last ten years. For example, Diageo has an average return of 3.6% for the month of October. Each stock has risen in at least eight of the past ten years in October – Diageo is the only stock in the FTSE 350 whose shares have risen every October in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Diageo 3.6
Restaurant Group (The) 3.3
easyJet 11.6
Brewin Dolphin Holdings 6.4
Tate & Lyle 4.8

Shares that dislike October

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in October over the last ten years. For example, Grainger has an average return of -8.3% for the month of October. All three stocks have fallen in eight of the past ten years in October.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Grainger -8.3
Dialight -3.0
Worldwide Healthcare Trust -1.8

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong October stocks would have out-performed an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak October stocks by an average of 10.3 percentage points in October for the past ten years.

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Beverages sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Beverages sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Beverages sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 1.9 percentage points in November.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been June and November – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in November in the last 14 years.
  2. The weakest months have been January and July – the sector has out-performed the market only five times in July in the last 14 years.

The four stocks in the FTSE 350 Beverages sector [NMX3530] are-

Barr (A G) [BAG] Diageo [DGE]
Britvic [BVIC] SABMiller [SAB]
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Diageo [DGE] – 61 years on the LSE

On this day in 1952 Diageo listed on the LSE.

The following chart plots the average monthly out-performance of the shares over the FTSE 100 Index since 1988. For example, on average Diageo has out-performed the FTSE 100 by 2.7 percentage points in March.

Average monthly performance of Diageo [DGE] relative to the FTSE 100 Index (1988-2012)

Observations:

  1. The strongest month for Diageo shares relative to the market has been March (the shares have out-performed the market in this month in 17 of the last 24 years).
  2. The weakest month for Diageo relative to the market has been July (the shares have only out-performed the market in this month in 9 of the past 25 years).

Diageo is in the FTSE 350 Beverages [NMX3530] sector.

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Influence of largest companies on FTSE 100 Index

The following chart shows the impact on the FTSE 100 Index of a 10% move in the share price of each of the 20 largest companies in the index. [The reference level for the FTSE 100 is 6318.]

For example, if the share price of Shell fell (rose) 10% the impact on the FTSE 100 Index would be a fall (rise) of 49 points in the index.

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