Bounceback Portfolio 2018

The Bounceback Portfolio invests in the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks of the previous year and holds them for the 3-month period, January-March. Since 2003, the Bounceback Portfolio has under-performed the index only twice (in 2013 and 2015).

Further information and track record on the Bounceback Portfolio can found here.

The following table lists the ten worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in 2017. These are the ten stocks that will comprise the 2018 Bounceback Portfolio.

Company TIDM 2017 Return (%)
Provident Financial PFG -68.5
Acacia Mining ACA -46.9
Dixons Carphone DC. -43.9
Centrica CNA -41.4
Petrofac Ltd PFC -41.3
Hikma Pharmaceuticals HIK -40.1
AA Ltd AA. -38.7
Saga SAGA -35.4
Inmarsat ISAT -34.7
Go-Ahead Group (The) GOG -33.6

 

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Shares that like/dislike October

Shares that like October

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in October over the last ten years. For example, Tate & Lyle has an average return of 6.1% for the month of October. Each stock has risen in October in nine of the past ten years, while Diageo is the only FTSE 350 stock to have risen in every October for the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Tate & Lyle 6.1
Marks & Spencer Group 5.2
Restaurant Group (The) 3.9
Diageo 3.0

Shares that dislike October

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in October over the last ten years. For example, William Hill has an average return of -4.4% for the month of October. All four stocks have fallen in October in at least eight of the past yen years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
William Hill -4.4
Tullett Prebon -4.2
Centrica -1.6

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong October stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak October stocks by an average of 7.9 percentage points in October for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike August

Shares that like August

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in August over the last ten years. For example, Fisher (James) & Sons has an average return of 10.1% for the month of August. Each stock has risen in at least nine of the past ten years in August – Fisher (James) & Sons is the only stock in the FTSE 350 whose shares have risen every August in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Fisher (James) & Sons 10.1
Keller Group 5.2
Bunzl 5.1
Centrica 4.5
Tesco 3.1

A portfolio of these five stocks would have out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in August every year over the last ten years with an average out-performance of 4.9 percentage points each August.

Shares that dislike August

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in August over the last ten years. For example, Pennon Group has an average return of -3.2% for the month of August. All three stocks have fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in August.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Pennon Group -3.2
Rio Tinto -2.6
Investec -1.7

A portfolio of these three stocks would have under-performed the FTSE 350 Index in August in eight of the  last ten years with an average under-performance of 3.1 percentage points each August.

 

 

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