Shares that like/dislike April

Shares that like April

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in April over the last ten years. For example, Menzies has an average return of 12.6% for the month of April. Each stock has risen in April in nine of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Menzies (John) 12.6
Xaar 10.0
Diploma 6.8
Royal Dutch Shell 5.6
Severn Trent 4.1

Shares that dislike April

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in April over the last ten years. For example, Balfour Beatty has an average return of -4.1% for the month of April. All four stocks have fallen in April in at least eight of the past yen years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Balfour Beatty -4.1
Centamin -2.8
Shire -0.8
UNITE Group 0.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong April stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak April stocks by an average of 9.6 percentage points in April for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike December

Shares that like December

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in December over the last ten years. For example, William Hill has an average return of 5.5% for the month of December. Each stock has risen in every December in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
William Hill 5.5
Balfour Beatty 5.4
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust 5.2
Witan Investment Trust 4.8
Alliance Trust 3.8

Shares that dislike December

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in December over the last ten years. For example, Centamin has an average return of -3.7% for the month of December. All three stocks have fallen in seven of the past ten years in December.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Centamin -3.7
Rank Group (The) -3.7
Amlin -1.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong December stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak December stocks by an average of 7.9 percentage points in December for the past ten years.

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Bounceback Portfolio 2013 – Result

The idea of the Bounceback Portfolio is that a portfolio of the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in one year has historically beaten the index in the first three months of the following year. This is explained in further detail in the UK Stockmarket Almanac 2013 and in this post at the beginning of the year.

The following chart shows the performance of the stocks in the Bounceback Portfolio 2013

The portfolio as a whole increased 2.4% in the first quarter 2013, but this was less than the FTSE 350 Index, which rose 9.2% in the same period. This is the first time since 2002 that the Bounceback Portfolio has under-performed the index in the first quarter.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing:  obviously the time to take profits was just two weeks into the year.


Dogs of the Dow

A related strategy is the Dogs of the Dow, where the ten stocks in the Dow Jones Index  with the highest dividend yield on the final day of the year are bought. So far, this portfolio is faring better than the above Bounce back Portfolio.

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The Bounceback Portfolio for 2013

The 2013 edition of the Almanac explained the Bounceback Strategy, whereby a portfolio of the 10 worst performing stocks in the FTSE 350 in one year is held for the first three months of the following year.

A portfolio of such stocks has out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in every year since 2002.

The following table lists the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in 2012 (i.e. these comprise the Bounceback Portfolio for 2013).

Company Performance in 2012 (%)
Bumi -68.8
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation -55.3
Centamin -52.4
Lonmin -45.5
Chemring Group -42.6
Petropavlovsk -41.3
FirstGroup -38.1
Man Group -34.2
Kenmare Resources -32.4
Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment -32.2

 

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