Shares that like/dislike February

Shares that like February

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in February over the last ten years. For example, Fidessa has an average return of 15.1% for the month of February. Each stock has risen in February in nine of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Fidessa Group 15.1
Croda International 9.6
Savills 9.5
BG Group 6.7
Bunzl 6.5

Shares that dislike February

The following table lists the two FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in February over the last ten years. For example, AstraZeneca has an average return of -3.7% for the month of February. Both these two stocks have fallen in February in eight of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
AstraZeneca -3.7
Vodafone Group -2.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong February stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak February stocks by an average of 12.6 percentage points in February for the past ten years.

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Oil & Gas Producers sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Oil & Gas Producers sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the Oil & Gas Producers sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.4 percentage points in March.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been March and June – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in March in the last 13 years.
  2. The weakest month has been November – the sector has out-performed the market only six times in march in the last 14 years.

The 13 stocks in the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers sector [NMX0530] are-

Afren [AFR] Ophir Energy [OPHR]
BG Group [BG.] Premier Oil [PMO]
BP [BP.] Royal Dutch Shell [RDSB]
Cairn Energy [CNE] Salamander Energy [SMDR]
EnQuest [ENQ] SOCO International [SIA]
Essar Energy [ESSR] Tullow Oil [TLW]
Heritage Oil Ltd [HOIL]
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Influence of largest companies on FTSE 100 Index

The following chart shows the impact on the FTSE 100 Index of a 10% move in the share price of each of the 20 largest companies in the index. [The reference level for the FTSE 100 is 6318.]

For example, if the share price of Shell fell (rose) 10% the impact on the FTSE 100 Index would be a fall (rise) of 49 points in the index.

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