Shares that like/dislike June

Shares that like June

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Synergy has an average return of 11.1% for the month of June. All stocks have risen in June for at least eight of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Synergy Health 11.1
Ted Baker 4.1
RPC Group 5.2

 Shares that dislike June

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Barclays has an average return of -7.8% for the month of June. All five stocks have fallen in at least nine of the past ten years in June.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Barclays -7.8
Travis Perkins -7.1
Bodycote -5.6
Schroders -4.0
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets -3.6

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong June stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak June stocks by an average of 12.4 percentage points in June for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike June

Shares that like June

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Halma has an average return of 6.1% for the month of June. Each stock has risen in June in nine of the past ten years, while Synergy Health is the only FTSE 350 stock to have risen in June for all last ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Synergy Health 10.6
Halma 6.1
Ted Baker 4.7
BT Group 3.3

Shares that dislike June

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Barclays has an average return of -6.5% for the month of June. All four stocks have fallen in June in at least nine of the past yen years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Barclays -6.5
Vesuvius -5.2
United Utilities Group -4.7
Rotork -2.8

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong June stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak June stocks by an average of 11.0 percentage points in June for the past ten years.

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FTSE 100 Index – 30 years old today

The FTSE 100 Index was launched on 3 January 1984. The market capitalisation weighted FTSE 100 index replaced the price-weighted FT30 Index as the performance benchmark for most investors.

Price performance

The following chart shows the price performance of the FTSE 100 Index 1984-2013. A simple linear trendline has been added.

FTSE 100 Index [1984-2013] with trendlineThe index was launched in 1984 with a value of 1000 and closed 2013 at 6749. This is an increase of 575% over the 30 years, giving an annual growth of 6.57%.

The trendline calculates a value of 6695 for the end of 2013, which is just 54 points away from the actual value (less than 1% difference). As can be seen in the chart, the FTSE 100 Index is pretty much bang on its long-term (since 1984) trend.

Fascinating Footsie Facts

Number of companies in index 100
Market capitalisation, average (£m) 18,253
Market capitalisation, standard deviation 24,837
Share price, average (£) 12.93
Number of companies paying a dividend 96
Dividend yield, average (%) 2.92
Dividend yield, standard deviation 1.29
PE ratio, average 20.2
PE ratio, standard deviation 14.2
PEG, average 2.3
Turnover, average (£m) 14,674
Turnover growth last five years, average (%) 76.2
Turnover to capitalisation ratio, average 0.88
Number of companies making a profit 94
Profit, average (£m) 1,534
Profit growth last five years, average (%) 101.6
Profit / turnover, average (%) 16.9
Current ratio, average 1.29
Net cash, average (£m) 5838
Net cash, sum total (£m) 566,363
Price to net cash ratio, average 24.2
Net borrowings, average (£m) -1710
Net borrowings, sum total (£m) -165,902
Net gearing, average 1.00
Interest cover, average 70.0
ROCE, average (%) 50.1
ROCE, standard deviation 107.6

Original constituents

The following table shows the 30 original companies that are still in the Index today. (The 19 italicised companies have been in the index continuously since launch.)

Company TIDM
Associated British Foods
Aviva
British American Tobacco
Barclays
BAE Systems
BP
GlaxoSmithKline
GKN
Hammerson
Imperial Tobacco Group
Johnson Matthey
Land Securities Group
Legal & General Group
Lloyds Banking Group
Marks & Spencer Group
Pearson
Prudential
Reckitt Benckiser Group
Reed Elsevier
Rexam
Rio Tinto
RBS Group
RSA Insurance Group
J Sainsbury
Royal Dutch Shell
Smith & Nephew
Standard Chartered
Tesco
Unilever
Whitbread

Largest companies

The following table compares the market capitalisations of the top five largest companies in the index in 1984 and today.

Rank (1984) Capital (£m) Rank (2013) Capital (£m)
1 British Petroleum Co. 7401 Royal Dutch Shell 140,695
2 Shell Trans. & Trad. Co. 6365 HSBC Holdings 124,728
3 General Electric Co. 4915 Vodafone Group 114,860
4 Imperial Chemical Industries 3917 BP 90,984
5 Marks & Spencer 2829 GlaxoSmithKline 78,252

Oil is still there today, but industrial, chemical and retail stocks have been replaced by bank, telecom and pharmaceutical stocks.

In 1984 the total market capitalisation of the index was £100 billion; at the end of 2013 the market capitalisation had grown to £1,824 billion.

It’s interesting to note that Shell’s market cap. today is 40% larger than the whole FTSE 100 Index in 1984.

Other references

FTSE 100 at 30 article in the Telegraph  by Martin Vander Weyer.

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Shares that like/dislike June

Shares that like June

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Halma has an average return of 7.3% for the month of June. Each stock has risen in at least nine of the past ten years in June – Halma and Synergy are the only two stocks in the FTSE 350 whose shares have risen every June in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
BT Group 3.7
Halma 7.3
Synergy Health 13.8
Ted Baker 4.2

A portfolio of these four stocks would have out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in June in nine of the last ten years with an average out-performance of 7.9 percentage points each June.

Shares that dislike June

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Land Securities has an average return of -3.6% for the month of June. Each stock has fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in June.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Barclays -4.8
Land Securities Group -3.6
Rotork -2.3
United Utilities Group -4.1
Vesuvius -4.7

A portfolio of these five stocks would have under-performed the FTSE 350 Index in every June over the last ten years with an average under-performance of 3.2 percentage points each June.

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Shares that like/dislike May

Shares that like May

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best historic returns in May over the last ten years. For example, AVEVA has an average return of 10.3% for the month of May. Each stock has risen in at least eight of the past ten years in May – AVEVA is the only stock in the FTSE 350 that has risen in nine of the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
AVEVA Group 10.3
3i Group 6.4
Babcock International Group 5.7
Pennon Group 3.1
Severn Trent 2.8

A portfolio of these five stocks would have out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in every May over the last ten years with an average out-performance of 6.2 percentage points each May.

Shares that dislike May

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst historic returns in May over the last ten years. For example, Taylor Wimpey has an average return of -10.8% for the month of May. Each stock has fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in May.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Taylor Wimpey -10.8
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) -7
Barclays -6.4
Workspace Group -5.3
Old Mutual -4.2

A portfolio of these five stocks would have under-performed the FTSE 350 Index in every May over the last ten years with an average under-performance of 5.9 percentage points each May.

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Banks sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Banks sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Banks sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has under-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.1 percentage points in December.

Observations:

  1. The sector has no consistently strong months; although the sector has out-performed the market by an average of 2.1 percentage points in April, the sector has actually under-performed the market that month in eight of the past 13 years.
  2. The weakest months have been November and December – the sector has out-performed the market only five times in December in the last 14 years.

The six stocks in the FTSE 350 Banks sector [NMX8350] are-

Bank of Georgia Holdings [BGEO] Lloyds Banking Group [LLOY]
Barclays [BARC] Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) [RBS]
HSBC Holdings [HSBA] Standard Chartered [STAN]
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Influence of largest companies on FTSE 100 Index

The following chart shows the impact on the FTSE 100 Index of a 10% move in the share price of each of the 20 largest companies in the index. [The reference level for the FTSE 100 is 6318.]

For example, if the share price of Shell fell (rose) 10% the impact on the FTSE 100 Index would be a fall (rise) of 49 points in the index.

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