Shares that like/dislike December (2014)

Shares that like December

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in December over the last ten years. For example, G4S has an average return of 6.3% for the month of December. All stocks, except Ashtead, have risen in every December for the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
G4S 6.3
Balfour Beatty 6.1
William Hill 5.0
Witan Investment Trust 4.8
Ashtead Group 13.4

Shares that dislike December

The following table lists the two FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in December over the last ten years. For example, Rank Group has an average return of -4.2% for the month of December. Both stocks have fallen in seven of the past ten years in December.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Randgold Resources Ltd -1.8
Rank Group (The) -4.2

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong December stocks would have out-performed every year, except 2008, an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak December stocks by an average of 10.1 percentage points in December for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike October

Shares that like October

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in October over the last ten years. For example, Tate & Lyle has an average return of 6.1% for the month of October. Each stock has risen in October in nine of the past ten years, while Diageo is the only FTSE 350 stock to have risen in every October for the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Tate & Lyle 6.1
Marks & Spencer Group 5.2
Restaurant Group (The) 3.9
Diageo 3.0

Shares that dislike October

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in October over the last ten years. For example, William Hill has an average return of -4.4% for the month of October. All four stocks have fallen in October in at least eight of the past yen years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
William Hill -4.4
Tullett Prebon -4.2
Centrica -1.6

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong October stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak October stocks by an average of 7.9 percentage points in October for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike December

Shares that like December

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in December over the last ten years. For example, William Hill has an average return of 5.5% for the month of December. Each stock has risen in every December in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
William Hill 5.5
Balfour Beatty 5.4
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust 5.2
Witan Investment Trust 4.8
Alliance Trust 3.8

Shares that dislike December

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in December over the last ten years. For example, Centamin has an average return of -3.7% for the month of December. All three stocks have fallen in seven of the past ten years in December.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Centamin -3.7
Rank Group (The) -3.7
Amlin -1.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong December stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak December stocks by an average of 7.9 percentage points in December for the past ten years.

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Travel & Leisure sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Travel & Leisure sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.1 percentage points in November.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been November and December – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in November in the last 14 years.
  2. The sector has no consistently weak months; although the sector has under-performed the market by an average of 2.6 percentage points in October, the sector has actually out-performed the market that month in eight of the past 14 years.

The 23 stocks in the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector [NMX5750] are-

Betfair Group [BET] Ladbrokes [LAD]
Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment [BPTY] Marston’s [MARS]
Carnival [CCL] Millennium & Copthorne Hotels [MLC]
Compass Group [CPG] Mitchells & Butlers [MAB]
Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL [DOM] National Express Group [NEX]
easyJet [EZJ] Playtech Ltd [PTEC]
Enterprise Inns [ETI] Rank Group (The) [RNK]
FirstGroup [FGP] Restaurant Group (The) [RTN]
Go-Ahead Group (The) [GOG] Stagecoach Group [SGC]
Greene King [GNK] TUI Travel [TT.]
InterContinental Hotels Group [IHG] Wetherspoon (J D) [JDW]
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA [IAG]
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