Santa Rally 2017

The Santa Rally describes the tendency of the market to rise in the last two weeks of the year.

In 2017 the FTSE 100 Index had a return of +2.6% in the last two weeks of the year. So the Santa Rally effect held in 2017.

As can be seen in the following chart, the Santa Rally has only failed to deliver in two years since 2000.

Santa Rally [2000-2017]

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UK equity indices returns 2017: Y, 2H, 4Q

The following charts plot the performance of UK equity indices in 2017 for the whole year, second half and fourth quarter.

2017 FY

Index returns for January – December 2017

UK equity indices 2017

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 32.9
FTSE AIM All-Share 24.3
FTSE Fledgling 23.0
FTSE 250 14.7
FTSE SmallCap 14.6
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 13.2
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 12.0
FTSE All-Share 9.1
FTSE 350 8.8
FTSE4Good UK 8.2
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 7.8
FTSE 100 7.6
FTSE4Good UK 50 6.7
FTSE TechMARK All Share 5.3
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 1.6

2017 2H

Index returns for July – December 2017

UK equity indices 2017 2H

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 11.6
FTSE Fledgling 9.5
FTSE AIM All-Share 8.7
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 7.3
FTSE 250 7.2
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 6.9
FTSE All-Share 5.6
FTSE SmallCap 5.6
FTSE 350 5.5
FTSE4Good UK 5.4
FTSE 100 5.1
FTSE4Good UK 50 4.5
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 3.9
FTSE TechMARK All Share 1.2
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -0.3

2017 4Q

Index returns for October – December 2017

UK equity index returns 2017 4Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index TIDM Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 5.8
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 5.1
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 5.0
FTSE Fledgling 4.6
FTSE AIM All-Share 4.5
FTSE All-Share 4.3
FTSE 250 4.3
FTSE 350 4.3
FTSE 100 4.3
FTSE4Good UK 4.1
FTSE4Good UK 50 3.8
FTSE SmallCap 3.2
FTSE UK Dividend Plus 2.6
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 2.2
FTSE TechMARK All Share 1.8

 

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Trading around Christmas and New Year

Does the equity market display any particular pattern in the days around Christmas and New Year?

Mean returns

The following chart plots the average daily returns of the FTSE 100 Index for nine days around Christmas and New Year for the periods 1984-2017 and also 2000-2017.

The nine days studied were-

  • Days 1-3: the three trading days leading up to Christmas.
  • Days 4-6: the three trading days between Christmas and New Year.
  • Days 7-9: the first three trading days of the year.

For example, since 1984 the average return of the index on the day before Christmas has been 0.24%

FTSE 100 average daily returns around Christmas and New Year [1984-2017]

Observations

  1. Market strength increases to the fourth day (the trading day immediately after Christmas). Since 1984 the fourth day has been the strongest day of the whole period, with an average daily return of 0.49% (albeit the volatility of returns on this day is high).
  2. Generally the profile of returns for the shorter time range (2000-2017) is similar to that for the whole period from 1984. The one significant difference is that since 2000 the strongest day of the period has been the first trading day of the new year. The new year generally starts strongly on the first day, with performance trailing off the following two days.
  3. The weakest day in the period is the third day of the New Year, followed by the last trading day of the year.

Let’s now see if the pattern of positive returns confirms the above findings.

Positive returns

The following chart plots the proportion of daily returns for the FTSE 100 Index that were positive on the nine days around Christmas and New for the period 1984-2017.

For example, for 84% of the years since 1984 the returns on the day after Christmas were positive.

FTSE 100 positive daily returns around Christmas and New Year [1984-2017]

The profile of behaviour demonstrated by the positive returns is similar to that for the mean returns above.

So, how did equities perform last year around Christmas compared to the average behaviour seen above?

Last year

The following chart replicates the first chart above with the average day returns for the period 2000-2017, and also plots the actual day returns for the nine days around Christmas in 2016.

FTSE 100 Index daily returns around Christmas and New Year

As can be seen, the actual returns last year roughly followed the average pattern since 2000: the strongest days were the days after Christmas and New Year, with performance quickly trailing off after New Year.


Almanac cover - 2018 (small 2)

The above is an extract from the newly published UK Stock Market Almanac 2018.

Order your copy now!

 

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Tax paid by FTSE 100 companies

The following chart shows the tax paid by FTSE 100 companies last year. For example, the top payer was Vodafone, which paid £4,008 million tax.

 

FTSE 100 companies tax paid last year [2017]

Observations:

  • In total FTSE 100 companies paid £29 billion in tax last year.
  • The top six payers paid over half the total tax paid.
  • The bottom 30 payers paid just 5% of the total tax paid.
  • The average tax paid by the 100 companies was £300m, while the median tax paid was £108m.
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Hi-Lo-Close

Analysis of the relationship between the closing level of the market and the hi-lo range during the day

The chart below shows the frequency with which the index closes near to the high (or low) of the day. The data analysed is FTSE 100 Index daily data since 1985. The analysis first takes the day’s hi-lo range, and then calculates three threshold levels (1%, 5%, and 10%).

For example, if a day’s low is 50 and high is 70, then the Hi-Lo range would be 20. And the 1%, 5%, and 10% thresholds would 0.2, 1 and 2. The day would be said to close within 10% low of the day if the closing price was below 52. The day would be said to close within 5% of the high if the closing value was above 69.

For example, since 1985 the FTSE 100 Index has closed within 10% of its daily high on 20.8% of all days, and it has closed within 1% of its low 5.6% of all days.

Frequency of FTSE 100 Index closing near high or low of the day

An obvious observation to make is that the Index closes more often near its high of the day than the low. In nearly 1 in 10 days the index closes within 1% of the high of the day.

The effect on returns the following day

Continuing this analysis of where the index closes relative to the Hi-Lo range of the day, the following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 100 Index on the following day, split by where the index closed the previous day relative to that day’s Hi-Lo range.

For example, on the days when the index closes within 10% of its low for the day on average the index return is -0.005% the following day; and when the index closes within 1% of its high for the day on average the index return is 0.16% the following day.

Hi-Lo-Close effect on following day returns

As can be seen, the nearer the index closes to its high of the day, the higher the following day’s return. The other striking observation is that, whereas a close near the day’s high is associated with relatively strong returns the following day, a close near the day’s low has little effect on the average return the following day.


Almanac cover - 2018 (small 2)

The above is an extract from the newly published UK Stock Market Almanac 2018.

Order your copy now!

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FTSE 100 companies all-time highs

The chart below shows the extent to which the 100 stocks in the FTSE 100 Index are below their all-time highs (ATH). 

For example, RBS is currently 96% below its ATH. While Croda Intl, Prudential, RELX, Scottish Mortgage, and Micro Focus Intl are all within 1% of their ATH.

FTSE 100 companies fall from all time high (percent) [Nov 2017]

Observations:

  • 12 FTSE 100 stocks are within 5% of their ATH.
  • 22 stocks are currently more than 50% below their ATH.
  • 4 stocks are currently more than 75% below their ATH (BT, RSA Insurance, Lloyds Banking, and RBS).
  • The average of the falls from the ATH is 30% (the median is 25%).

The following chart is similar to the above but shows the number of days since the stocks hit their all time highs.

FTSE 100 companies fall from all time high (days) [Nov 2017]

Observations:

  • 6 FTSE 100 stocks have hit their ATH in the past week (Schroders, Informa, Prudential, RELX, Scottish Mortgage, and Micro Focus Intl).
  • 28 stocks hit their ATH over 10 years ago.
  • 8 stocks in the FTSE 100 Index hit their all-time highs in the last millennium (IAG, RSA Insurance, Aviva, Lloyds Banking, GlaxoSmithKline, Rentokil Initial, Kingfisher, and BT).
  • The average of the number of days since the ATH is 1991 (5.5 yrs). The median is 840 (2.3 yrs).
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Day of the week grid

An update of the Day of the Week grid.

This is a table showing the daily returns of the FTSE 100 Index for every day so far in 2017. Positive returns are highlighted in green, negative returns in red. (White cells indicate a market holiday.)

Day of the week grid [Nov 2017]

Pattern-match away…!

Other articles looking at returns on days of the week.

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Market returns in odd and even weeks

A couple of years ago the Almanac wrote about a strange characteristic of the UK equity market which was the difference in performance in odd and even weeks. The original article is here (see the original article for the definition of odd/even weeks etc.) To recap briefly, the FTSE 100 Index saw much stronger returns in odd weeks than even weeks.

Let’s see what’s happened recently and if this strange characteristic still exists. 

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 average returns for odd and even weeks for the period 2010 to 2017, and also for the individual years 2016 and 2017 (to date). 

Average FTSE 100 returns in odd and even weeks

As can be seen, for the period from 2010 the FTSE 100 has seen on average positive returns in odd weeks and negative returns in even weeks. In effect, for the last few years in aggregate all the growth in the index has been due to its performance in odd weeks.

In 2016, the market on average did see positive returns in even weeks (albeit still less than the odd-week returns). But so far in 2017 the longer-term trend has reasserted itself, with strong odd-week returns and negative even-week returns.

The following chart updates the performance of two hypothetical portfolios: one of which only invests in the market in odd weeks, and the other only invests in even weeks.

Odd v Even Week FTSE 100 Portfolios [2010-2017]

The significant divergence in performance previously observed has continued to today. Having started with values of 100 in 2010, by November 2017 the Odd Week Portfolio would have had a value of 187, compared with a value of 75 for the Even Week Portfolio. The change in value of the Even Week Portfolio has changed little from 2015, whereas the Odd Week Portfolio has grown strongly.

As mentioned in the original article, there is no obvious reason for this weekly phenomenon, although such weekly effects have been seen elsewhere – for example, the FOMC Cycle.

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Volatility of markets in 2017

The following chart shows the volatility of various markets so far in 2017.

Volatility In 2017

Not difficult – or surprising – to spot the most volatile market here.

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UK equity indices returns 2017 3Q & YTD

2017 3Q

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices in the third quarter 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 3Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index TIDM Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 5.5
FTSE Fledgling 4.7
FTSE AIM All-Share 4.0
FTSE 250 2.8
FTSE SmallCap 2.3
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 2.1
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 1.8
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 1.7
FTSE4Good UK 1.3
FTSE All-Share 1.2
FTSE 350 1.2
FTSE 100 0.8
FTSE4Good UK 50 0.7
FTSE TechMARK All Share -0.5
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -2.8

2017 3Q YTD

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices over the first 3 quarters of 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 3Q YTD

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 25.6
FTSE AIM All-Share 18.9
FTSE Fledgling 17.6
FTSE SmallCap 11.1
FTSE 250 9.9
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 7.8
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 6.6
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 5.5
FTSE All-Share 4.6
FTSE 350 4.3
FTSE4Good UK 4.0
FTSE TechMARK All Share 3.5
FTSE 100 3.2
FTSE4Good UK 50 2.8
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -0.9

 

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