Tobacco sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Tobacco sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Tobacco sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the Tobacco sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 4.1 percentage points in February.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months of the year relative to the market for the sector have been February and May, the sector has only under-performed the market in two years since 1999 in February.
  2. There have been no consistently weak months for the sector; although on average the sector has under-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 1.5 percentage points in October, the sector has out-performed the market in 50% of years since 1999 in this month.

The two stocks in the FTSE 350 Tobacco sector [NMX3780] are-

British American Tobacco [BATS]
Imperial Tobacco Group [IMT]
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FTSE 350 sector performance in first half 2013

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 sectors in the first six months of 2013.

The data for the above chart are given in the following table.

FTSE 350 Sector TIDM Chng 1H 2013 (%)
Automobiles & Parts 31.7
Fixed Line Telecommunications 30.1
Household Goods 26.0
Real Estate Investment & Services 25.1
Aerospace & Defense 23.2
Forestry & Paper 22.2
Mobile Telecommunications 21.4
Travel & Leisure 18.2
Financial Services 18.0
General Retailers 17.2
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 16.8
Software & Computer Services 16.4
Media 14.0
Industrial Transportation 13.5
Support Services 12.4
Food Producers 12.0
Life Insurance 11.9
Industrial Engineering 11.0
General Industrials 10.8
Personal Goods 9.2
Nonlife Insurance 8.1
Beverages 7.8
Electricity 7.3
Health Care Equipment & Services 7.0
Equity Investment Instruments 7.0
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 6.2
FTSE 100 5.4
Construction & Materials 5.3
Banks 5.2
Tobacco 4.6
Real Estate Investment Trusts 4.3
Technology Hardware & Equipment 3.7
Chemicals 3.5
Food & Drug Retailers 2.5
Oil & Gas Producers 2.0
Electronic & Electrical Equipment -3.8
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution -7.9
Mining -26.5
Industrial Metals -58.4

 

 

 

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Performance of UK sectors in 2012

The following chart shows the performance of the FTSE 350 stock sectors in 2012.

29 of the 38 sectors out-performed the FTSE 100 Index, with 26 sectors increasing over 10% in the year.

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