Stocks with the worst recent annual performance

The following table shows the 13 FTSE All-Share stocks that have had the highest number of consecutive negative annual returns to end 2014. The last column gives the number of years of consecutive negative returns.

For example, First Group has not had an up year since 2007, and so has had seven consecutive years of negative returns up to 2014.

Company TIDM Index Consec -ve Yrs
FirstGroup FGP FTSE Mid 250 7
Tesco TSCO FTSE 100 5
Aquarius Platinum Ltd AQP FTSE Small Cap 5
Hardy Oil & Gas HDY FTSE Small Cap 5
BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust BRLA FTSE Small Cap 4
Anglo American AAL FTSE 100 4
BlackRock World Mining Trust BRWM FTSE Mid 250 4
Anglo Pacific Group APF FTSE Small Cap 4
Premier Oil PMO FTSE Mid 250 4
City Natural Resources High Yield Trust CYN FTSE Small Cap 4
BlackRock Commodities Income Investment Trust BRCI FTSE Small Cap 4
Ferrexpo FXPO FTSE Small Cap 4
Hansard Global HSD FTSE Small Cap 4

 

Social Share Toolbar

Shares that like/dislike January

Shares that like January

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in January over the last ten years. For example, Aveva Group has an average return of 6.3% for the month of January. Each stock has risen in every January in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Electra Private Equity 7.2
Aveva Group 6.3
SIG 5.9
St James’s Place 5.6
Euromoney Institutional Investor 4.5

Shares that dislike January

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in January over the last ten years. For example, First Group has an average return of -9.7% for the month of January. All five stocks have fallen in every January in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
FirstGroup -9.7
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) -4.8
Tesco -4.6
GlaxoSmithKline -3.8
Pennon Group -2.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong January stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak January stocks by an average of 10.9 percentage points in January for the past ten years.

Social Share Toolbar

FTSE 350 share performance in 1H 2013

The following table shows the top ten performing shares in the FTSE 350 Index for the first six months of 2013.

Company TIDM Chng 1H 2013(%)
Ocado Group 244.3
Thomas Cook Group 210.7
Xaar 180.3
easyJet 69.3
Bank of Georgia Holdings 62.1
CSR 61.5
3i Group 55.4
Ted Baker 53.0
Ashtead Group 51.4
Barratt Developments 49.1

And the following table shows the worst ten performing shares in the FTSE 350 Index for the first six months of 2013.

Company TIDM Chng 1H 2013(%)
African Barrick Gold Ltd -78.2
Hochschild Mining -68.0
Kazakhmys -66.7
Evraz -62.7
Polymetal International -61.4
Fresnillo -52.2
Ferrexpo -47.0
FirstGroup -43.5
Antofagasta -40.0
Anglo American -33.2

 

Social Share Toolbar

Bounceback Portfolio 2013 – Result

The idea of the Bounceback Portfolio is that a portfolio of the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in one year has historically beaten the index in the first three months of the following year. This is explained in further detail in the UK Stockmarket Almanac 2013 and in this post at the beginning of the year.

The following chart shows the performance of the stocks in the Bounceback Portfolio 2013

The portfolio as a whole increased 2.4% in the first quarter 2013, but this was less than the FTSE 350 Index, which rose 9.2% in the same period. This is the first time since 2002 that the Bounceback Portfolio has under-performed the index in the first quarter.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing:  obviously the time to take profits was just two weeks into the year.


Dogs of the Dow

A related strategy is the Dogs of the Dow, where the ten stocks in the Dow Jones Index  with the highest dividend yield on the final day of the year are bought. So far, this portfolio is faring better than the above Bounce back Portfolio.

Social Share Toolbar

Travel & Leisure sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Travel & Leisure sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.1 percentage points in November.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been November and December – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in November in the last 14 years.
  2. The sector has no consistently weak months; although the sector has under-performed the market by an average of 2.6 percentage points in October, the sector has actually out-performed the market that month in eight of the past 14 years.

The 23 stocks in the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector [NMX5750] are-

Betfair Group [BET] Ladbrokes [LAD]
Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment [BPTY] Marston’s [MARS]
Carnival [CCL] Millennium & Copthorne Hotels [MLC]
Compass Group [CPG] Mitchells & Butlers [MAB]
Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL [DOM] National Express Group [NEX]
easyJet [EZJ] Playtech Ltd [PTEC]
Enterprise Inns [ETI] Rank Group (The) [RNK]
FirstGroup [FGP] Restaurant Group (The) [RTN]
Go-Ahead Group (The) [GOG] Stagecoach Group [SGC]
Greene King [GNK] TUI Travel [TT.]
InterContinental Hotels Group [IHG] Wetherspoon (J D) [JDW]
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA [IAG]
Social Share Toolbar

The Bounceback Portfolio for 2013

The 2013 edition of the Almanac explained the Bounceback Strategy, whereby a portfolio of the 10 worst performing stocks in the FTSE 350 in one year is held for the first three months of the following year.

A portfolio of such stocks has out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in every year since 2002.

The following table lists the 10 worst performing FTSE 350 stocks in 2012 (i.e. these comprise the Bounceback Portfolio for 2013).

Company Performance in 2012 (%)
Bumi -68.8
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation -55.3
Centamin -52.4
Lonmin -45.5
Chemring Group -42.6
Petropavlovsk -41.3
FirstGroup -38.1
Man Group -34.2
Kenmare Resources -32.4
Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment -32.2

 

Social Share Toolbar