Shares that like November

Shares that have been strong November

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in November over the last ten years. For example, Babcock has an average return of 4.6% for the month of November. Each stock has risen in at least eight of the past ten years in November.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Babcock International Group 4.6
Compass Group 4.5
CRH 4.3
BT Group 5.3
Greene King 4.8

A portfolio of these four stocks would have out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in November in nine of the last ten years with an average out-performance of 5.2 percentage points each November.

Shares that have been weak November

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in November over the last ten years. For example, Vedanta Reseources has an average return of -10.5% for the month of November. Each stock has fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in November.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Vedanta Resources -10.5
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) -8.7
Tullett Prebon -7.8
Ashmore Group -5.3
Standard Chartered -3.7

A portfolio of these five stocks would have under-performed the FTSE 350 Index in November in eight of the last last ten years with an average under-performance of 6.7 percentage points each November.

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Stocks with the best recent annual performance

The following table shows the seven FTSE All-Share stocks that have had the highest number of consecutive positive annual returns to end 2014. The last column gives the number of years of consecutive positive returns.

For example, Dechra Pharmaceuticals has not had a down year since 2003, and so has had 12 consecutive years of positive returns up to 2014.

Company TIDM Index Consec +ve Yrs
Dechra Pharmaceuticals DPH FTSE Mid 250 12
Compass Group CPG FTSE 100 9
Worldwide Healthcare Trust WWH FTSE Mid 250 8
Booker Group BOK FTSE Mid 250 8
Barr (A G) BAG FTSE Mid 250 7
Biotech Growth Trust (The) BIOG FTSE Small Cap 7
BTG BTG FTSE Mid 250 7

After these seven stocks, there have been 34 FTSE All-Share stocks that have had positive annual returns for the past six years.

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Shares that like/dislike November (2014)

Shares that like November

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in November over the last ten years. For example, Greene King has an average return of 6.0% for the month of November. Each stock has risen in at least nine of the past ten years in November.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Greene King 6.0
Babcock International Group 5.8
Shire 4.7
Compass Group 4.6

Shares that dislike November

The following table lists the three FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in November over the last ten years. For example, Tullet Prebon has an average return of -7.3% for the month of November. All three stocks have fallen in eight of the past ten years in November.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Tullett Prebon -7.3
Lloyds Banking Group -5.5
CSR -3.5

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong November stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak November stocks by an average of 10.7 percentage points in November for the past ten years.

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Shares that like/dislike November

Shares that like November

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in November over the last ten years. For example, Babock has an average return of 8.0% for the month of November. Each stock has risen in at least nine of the past ten years in November.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Babcock International Group 8.0
Shire 5.4
Tate & Lyle 5.2
Compass Group 4.6
Premier Farnell 3.9

Shares that dislike November

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in November over the last ten years. For example, Rentokil Initial has an average return of -6.0% for the month of November. All five stocks have fallen in eight of the past ten years in November.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Tullett Prebon -6.2
Rentokil Initial -6.0
AstraZeneca -2.6
Greggs -2.4
Herald Investment Trust -2.2

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong November stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak November stocks by an average of 9.3 percentage points in November for the past ten years.

 

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Shares that like/dislike September

Shares that like September

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in September over the last ten years. For example, Diploma has an average return of 6.3% for the month of September. Each stock has risen in at least eight of the past ten years in September – Diploma is the only stock in the FTSE 350 whose shares have risen nine times in September in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Ashtead Group 8.4
Aberdeen Asset Management 8.0
JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust 6.6
Diploma 6.3
Carnival 4.1

Shares that dislike September

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in September over the last ten years. For example, Premier Farnell has an average return of -8.0% for the month of September. All five stocks have fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in September; Premier Farnell is the only stock in the FTSE 350 whose shares have fallen nine times in September in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Premier Farnell -8.0
Pace -8.0
Compass Group -4.8
SVG Capital -3.7
Carpetright -3.7

Strategy

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong September stocks would have out-performed an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak September stocks by an average of 12.3 percentage points in September for the past ten years.

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Travel & Leisure sector monthly seasonality analysis

The 2013 edition of the Almanac looks at the historic monthly performance of the FTSE 350 sectors. Here we look at the Travel & Leisure sector.

The following chart plots the average out-performance of the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector over the FTSE 100 Index by month since 1999. For example, since 1999 on average the sector has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 2.1 percentage points in November.

Observations:

  1. The strongest months have been November and December – the sector has under-performed the market only three times in November in the last 14 years.
  2. The sector has no consistently weak months; although the sector has under-performed the market by an average of 2.6 percentage points in October, the sector has actually out-performed the market that month in eight of the past 14 years.

The 23 stocks in the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure sector [NMX5750] are-

Betfair Group [BET] Ladbrokes [LAD]
Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment [BPTY] Marston’s [MARS]
Carnival [CCL] Millennium & Copthorne Hotels [MLC]
Compass Group [CPG] Mitchells & Butlers [MAB]
Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL [DOM] National Express Group [NEX]
easyJet [EZJ] Playtech Ltd [PTEC]
Enterprise Inns [ETI] Rank Group (The) [RNK]
FirstGroup [FGP] Restaurant Group (The) [RTN]
Go-Ahead Group (The) [GOG] Stagecoach Group [SGC]
Greene King [GNK] TUI Travel [TT.]
InterContinental Hotels Group [IHG] Wetherspoon (J D) [JDW]
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA [IAG]
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