GBP and USD in 2017 3Q

GBP

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the UK pound for the third quarter 2017. For example, the UK pound increased 2.8% against the US Dollar in 3Q 2017.

GBP forex rates 3Q 2017

USD

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the US dollar for the third quarter 2017. For example, the US dollar fell 302% against the Euro in 3Q 2017.

USD forex rates 3Q 2017

Social Share Toolbar

International markets 2017 3Q YTD

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets over the first three quarters of 2017. 

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 3Q YTD returns

GBP

The following chart plots the GBP-adjusted returns (i.e. these are the returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets 2017 3Q YTD [GBP] returns

USD

The following chart plots the USD-adjusted returns (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets 2017 3Q YTD [USD] returns

 

Social Share Toolbar

International markets 2017 3Q

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in the 3rd quarter 2017. 

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 3Q returns

GBP

The following chart plots the GBP-adjusted returns (i.e. these are the returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets 2017 3Q [GBP] returns

USD

The following chart plots the USD-adjusted returns (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets 2017 3Q [USD] returns

 

Social Share Toolbar

UK sector indices 2017 3Q & YTD

2017 3Q

The following chart plots the performance of UK FTSE 350 sector indices for the second quarter 2017.

UK sector index returns 2017 3Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Sector TIDM Rtn(%)
Industrial Metals 47.4
Mining 12.8
Oil & Gas Producers 9.9
Beverages 8.4
General Retailers 8.0
Industrial Engineering 7.8
Chemicals 7.7
Software & Computer Services 7.2
Automobiles & Parts 6.1
Food & Drug Retailers 5.7
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.2
General Industrials 4.8
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 4.4
Personal Goods 4.3
Food Producers 3.3
Support Services 3.1
Banks 1.6
Financial Services 1.3
Equity Investment Instruments 1.2
Construction & Materials 1.1
Aerospace & Defense 1.0
Life Insurance 0.6
Forestry & Paper -0.4
Real Estate Investment Trusts -0.5
Nonlife Insurance -1.0
Real Estate Investment & Services -1.3
Travel & Leisure -2.2
Health Care Equipment & Services -2.6
Household Goods & Home Construction -2.9
Fixed Line Telecommunications -3.0
Gas, Water & Multiutilities -3.2
Electricity -3.9
Mobile Telecommunications -4.8
Industrial Transportation -5.0
Media -5.9
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology -6.9
Tobacco -10.2
0.0

 2017 3Q YTD

The following chart plots the performance of UK FTSE 350 sector indices for the first three quarters 2017.

UK sector index returns 2017 3Q YTD

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Sector Rtn(%)
Industrial Metals 61.7
Personal Goods 27.8
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 23.1
Forestry & Paper 20.4
Beverages 18.3
Industrial Engineering 17.1
Software & Computer Services 15.5
General Industrials 15.5
Aerospace & Defense 14.6
Financial Services 13.6
Support Services 12.7
Chemicals 12.6
Mining 11.8
Household Goods & Home Construction 11.7
Equity Investment Instruments 9.9
Nonlife Insurance 9.8
Health Care Equipment & Services 9.3
Real Estate Investment & Services 8.5
Banks 7.6
Food Producers 7.4
Travel & Leisure 7.3
Life Insurance 7.0
Automobiles & Parts 4.3
Mobile Telecommunications 3.4
General Retailers 1.1
Real Estate Investment Trusts 0.5
Construction & Materials -0.4
Tobacco -2.3
Food & Drug Retailers -2.4
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology -2.6
Oil & Gas Producers -3.2
Industrial Transportation -3.9
Gas, Water & Multiutilities -6.7
Media -7.9
Electricity -10.7
Fixed Line Telecommunications -21.0
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution -22.8

Social Share Toolbar

UK equity indices returns 2017 3Q & YTD

2017 3Q

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices in the third quarter 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 3Q

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index TIDM Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 5.5
FTSE Fledgling 4.7
FTSE AIM All-Share 4.0
FTSE 250 2.8
FTSE SmallCap 2.3
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 2.1
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 1.8
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 1.7
FTSE4Good UK 1.3
FTSE All-Share 1.2
FTSE 350 1.2
FTSE 100 0.8
FTSE4Good UK 50 0.7
FTSE TechMARK All Share -0.5
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -2.8

2017 3Q YTD

The following chart plots the performance of UK equity indices over the first 3 quarters of 2017.

UK equity index returns 2017 3Q YTD

The data for the chart is given in the following table.

Index Rtn(%)
FTSE AIM 100 25.6
FTSE AIM All-Share 18.9
FTSE Fledgling 17.6
FTSE SmallCap 11.1
FTSE 250 9.9
FTSE All-Share – Total Return 7.8
FTSE 100 Index – Total Return 6.6
FTSE TechMARK Focus Index 5.5
FTSE All-Share 4.6
FTSE 350 4.3
FTSE4Good UK 4.0
FTSE TechMARK All Share 3.5
FTSE 100 3.2
FTSE4Good UK 50 2.8
FTSE UK Dividend Plus -0.9

 

Social Share Toolbar

The Stock Market in September

September has not been a good month for investors. Since 1990 the average return of the FTSE All-Share Index in September has been -1.2%; the worst return of any month in the year.

However, although the average return is bad in the month, over the longer-term about half of all Septembers actually have positive returns. And, in the last 13 years, the market has only fallen in September in four years.

Monthly returns of FTSE All Share Index - September (1984-2016)

The problem is that when the market does fall in this month, the falls can be very large. For example, as can be seen in the accompanying chart, the FTSE All-Share Index has declined over 8% in three years since 2000. So, the big problem for investors in September is volatility – share price volatility is at its highest annual point in September.

Large caps v mid caps

The situation is even worse for mid-cap stocks. Since 1986, on average the FTSE 250 Index under-performs the FTSE 100 Index by 0.7 percentage points in September – making September, along with October, the worst months for mid-cap stocks relative to the large-caps

Average month

In an average month for September the market tends to gently drift lower for the first three weeks before rebounding slightly in the final week – although the final trading day (FTD) of the month has historically been one of the weakest FTDs of all months in the year.

Gold

In contrast to equities, gold tends to be strong in September: since 1968 the average gold price return in the month has been 1.8%, making September the strongest month of the year for gold. Recently, since 2000, gold’s September has been even higher at 2.3%. It should be noted that silver has also been historically strong in September.

Sectors

On the sector front, September tends to be good for Electricity stocks, Food & Drug Retailers, Mobile Telecommunications, Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, and relatively bad for Aerospace & Defense, Chemicals, Electronic & Electrical Equipment, General Retailers, Media, Technology Hardware & Equipment.

Diary

In the diary this month are: the US Nonfarm payroll report on the 1st, the NYSE closed on the 4th (Labor Day), ECB Governing Council Meeting on the 7th, MPC interest rate announcement on the 14th, and it’s Triple Witching on the 15th.

Sell in May…

Saturday 16th September will see horse racing at Doncaster – the St Leger Stakes. Of note for those investors who adhere to the adage “sell in May, go away and don’t come back till St Legers day”.


Article first appeared in Money Observer

Further articles on the market in September.

Social Share Toolbar

FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Quarterly Review – September 2017

After market close on 30 August 2017 FTSE Russell confirmed the following changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The changes will be implemented at the close Friday, 15 September 2017 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 18 September 2017.

FTSE 100

Joining: NMC Health [NMC], Berkeley Group Holdings [BKG]

Leaving: Royal Mail [RMG], Provident Financial [PFG]

FTSE 250

Joining: Royal Mail [RMG], Provident Financial [PFG], Alfa Financial Software Holdings [ALFA], 888 Holdings [888], Sequoia Economic Infrastructure Income Fund [SEQ]

Leaving: NMC Health [NMC], Berkeley Group Holdings [BKG], Northgate [NTG], Petra Diamonds [PDL], Carillion [CLLN]

Social Share Toolbar

Solar eclipse 2017

A solar eclipse occurs when the moon passes between the earth and the sun. A total eclipse occurs when the moon fully blocks the sun; these are quite rare as they only exist along a narrow path on the surface of the Earth. Other types of eclipses are annular and partial when only part of the sun is obscured.

Solar eclipse [2017] 03

On 21 August 2017 the US will experience a total eclipse. This is a big event as the last total eclipse observable in the continental US was in 1979 (when, in fact, the weather was not the best). And the last solar eclipse whose path of totality moved from coast to coast (as it will in 2017) was back in 1918. Of course, this being the United States, the Americans will no doubt play the whole thing down and it may pass many by without being noticed at all.

It can be a scary thing when the sun suddenly disappears in the middle of the day and in olden times people would become fearful at the time of eclipses. Various stories were told to explain the terrible event. Many of these myths involved the sun being eaten by a large animal, for example in Vietnam people believed that a giant frog was devouring the sun (has this actually ever been truly disproved?) Customs developed to chase away whatever was eating the sun by banging pots and pans ­ so far this has proved a remarkably successful strategy and has worked every time.

Scientists (slayers of myths, and general killjoys) claim that there is no evidence that solar eclipses affect human behaviour, health or the environment.

But is this true?

The above table lists all the total solar eclipses seen in the US since 1900, with in each case a sparkline showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the four days around the eclipse (the eclipse is on the 3rd day).

And the following two charts plot the returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the days around the 15 total solar eclipses that have been visible from the United States since 1900. S(-1) is the day before the eclipse, S(0) the day of the eclipse, and S(+1) the day after. The following chart plots the average return for the three days…

Solar eclipse [2017] 01…and the chart below plots the proportion of days that had positive returns.

Solar eclipse [2017] 02

It can be observed in both the sparklines and the bar charts that on the day before the eclipse, and on the day itself, the market tends to be weak (investors fearful of the big frog). But on the day after the eclipse the market bounces back ­ the frog has gone and the sun is back.

Social Share Toolbar

The Stock Market in August

Since 2011 the UK equity market has displayed a rather odd behavior in August: alternating mildly positive returns for the month in even years, with large negative returns in odd years. In the event that this pattern continues then we are due a large fall in the market this year in August. Besides that odd pattern, as can be seen in the chart, apart from the anomalous years of 2008 and 2009, since 2000 even when the market does rise in August, the returns are small.

Monthly returns of FTSE All Share Index - August (1984-2016)

The average August

From 1970 the average return for August of the FTSE All-Share index has been 0.7%, with 62% of years seeing a positive return in the month. But since 2000 the performance has declined and the average return has fallen to zero. As a result, August now ranks ninth of all months of the year

Stocks

Over the last ten years the FTSE 350 stocks that have tended to perform well in August have been: Fisher (James) & Sons [FSJ], Petrofac [PFC], and Synthomer [SYNT]. Those first two stocks have seen positive returns in August in nine of the past ten years. By contrast, the FTSE 350 stocks that have tended to perform poorly in the month are: Standard Chartered [STAN], Rio Tinto [RIO], and Vedanta Resources [VED]. Rio Tinto has fallen in every August since 2007.

Diary

Significant dates this month are: the MPC interest rate announcement on the 3rd, US Nonfarm payroll report on the 4th, the MSCI quarterly index review announcement on the 10th, and the LSE is closed on the 28th (Summer bank holiday). The result of the quarterly FTSE index review (including changes for the FTSE 100 and 250 indices) will be announced on the 31st.

Solar eclipse

And on the 21st the US will experience a total eclipse. This is a big event as the last total eclipse observable in the continental US was in 1979 (when, in fact, the weather was not the best). And the last solar eclipse whose path of totality moved from coast to coast (as it will in 2017) was back in 1918. And investors should be interested in this because? Well, spooky things happen around eclipses.

On average in the 15 total solar eclipses that have been visible from the United States since 1900, the Dow Jones Index tends to weak on the day before the eclipse, and on the day itself, but then prices bounce back on the day after.


Article first appeared in Money Observer

Further articles on the market in August.

Social Share Toolbar

International markets 2017 1H

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in the first half 2017.

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 1H

GBP

The following chart plots the GBP-adjusted returns (i.e. these are the returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets (GBP) 2017 1H

USD

The following chart plots the USD-adjusted returns (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets (USD) 2017 1H

Social Share Toolbar