Shares that like/dislike June

Shares that like June

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Halma has an average return of 6.1% for the month of June. Each stock has risen in June in nine of the past ten years, while Synergy Health is the only FTSE 350 stock to have risen in June for all last ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Synergy Health 10.6
Halma 6.1
Ted Baker 4.7
BT Group 3.3

Shares that dislike June

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Barclays has an average return of -6.5% for the month of June. All four stocks have fallen in June in at least nine of the past yen years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Barclays -6.5
Vesuvius -5.2
United Utilities Group -4.7
Rotork -2.8

An equally-weighted portfolio of the above strong June stocks would have out-performed every year an equally-weighted portfolio of the above weak June stocks by an average of 11.0 percentage points in June for the past ten years.

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Average market behaviour in July

The following chart plots the average performance of the FTSE 100 Index during July since 1984 (more info on this type of chart).

Average market behaviour in July, FTSE 100

The chart shows that on average, the market rises for the first week of July, then drifts lower for the following two weeks, but ends strongly in the final week.


June 2013

The average chart for June was posted a month ago here. The following reproduces that chart and overlays the actual FTSE 100 for June 2013.

In an average June the market is weak; this was true also in 2013, but the market was much weaker than in an average year.

 

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Last trading day of June

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of June.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac the LTDs of months used to be stronger than average, but in recent years they have been weak. This is quite different from the first trading days of months which strongly out-perform the average for all days, and where the effect has strengthened in recent years.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.20% on the LTD of June, which makes it 2nd in the ranking of month LTDs.

Since 2000, however, the June LTD has been even stronger with an average return of 0.53% on the day – making it the strongest month LTD of the year.

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every June LTD since 1984.

FTSE 100 Index, last trading day of June

 

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Average market behaviour in June

The following chart plots the average performance of the FTSE 100 Index during June since 1984 (more info on this type of chart).

The chart shows that on average, after an initial strong couple of days, the market tends to steadily drift lower for the rest of the month.


May 2013

The average chart for May was posted a month ago here. The following reproduces that chart and overlays the actual FTSE 100 for May 2013.

In an average May the market trades fairly flat for the first couple of weeks and then sells off from the 11th trading day of the month. This year, the market was unusually strong for the first three weeks and then sold off from the 15th trading day of the month.

 

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First trading day of June

Next Monday will be the first trading day (FTD) of June.

As explained in the 2013 edition of the Almanac, the market has a tendency to be strong on the FTD of a month. And this effect has been even more pronounced in recent years.

The June FTD has been the 6th strongest FTD of the 12 months: since 1984 the FTSE 100 Index has increased on average 0.24% on this day.

From 2000 the average return on the day has been marginally weaker at 0.21%.

The following chart shows the returns for every June FTD since 1984.

Returns for the FTSE 100 on the first trading day of June for the years 1984-2013

 

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Shares that like/dislike June

Shares that like June

The following table lists the four FTSE 350 shares that have the best returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Halma has an average return of 7.3% for the month of June. Each stock has risen in at least nine of the past ten years in June – Halma and Synergy are the only two stocks in the FTSE 350 whose shares have risen every June in the past ten years.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
BT Group 3.7
Halma 7.3
Synergy Health 13.8
Ted Baker 4.2

A portfolio of these four stocks would have out-performed the FTSE 350 Index in June in nine of the last ten years with an average out-performance of 7.9 percentage points each June.

Shares that dislike June

The following table lists the five FTSE 350 shares that have the worst returns in June over the last ten years. For example, Land Securities has an average return of -3.6% for the month of June. Each stock has fallen in at least eight of the past ten years in June.

Company TIDM Avg(%)
Barclays -4.8
Land Securities Group -3.6
Rotork -2.3
United Utilities Group -4.1
Vesuvius -4.7

A portfolio of these five stocks would have under-performed the FTSE 350 Index in every June over the last ten years with an average under-performance of 3.2 percentage points each June.

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