Market behaviour on the days around Budget Day

The United Kingdom used to have have two annual Budgets (what the UK Treasuary calls “fiscal events”), one in the Spring and the other in the Autumn. But from 2017 it is switching to having just one Budget in the year – in the Autumn. The reason is to allow major tax changes to occur annually, before the start of the fiscal year. (Further info on the new Budget timetable can be found on the Treasury web site.)

So, 2017 saw the last Spring Budget, and the Autumn Budget will take place on Wednesday 22 November 2017.

Below we look at the immediate effect of the Budget on three asset classes in the three days around Budget Day:

  1. B(-1): the day before the Budget
  2. B(0): Budget Day
  3. B(+1): the day after the Budget

Equities

The following chart plots the daily returns for the FTSE 100 Index for the three days around Budget Day for the years 2000-2017. For example, in year 2000 the Budget was on 21 March, the day before the Budget the FTSE 100 rose 1.04%, on Budget Day the index fell 0.13%, and on the day after the index fell 0.12%.

Daily returns for FTSE 100 for the three days around the Chancellor's Budget [2000-2017]

GBPUSD

Similar to the above, the following chart plots the daily returns of GBPUSD around Budget Day from year 2000.

Daily returns for GBPUSD for the three days around the Chancellor's Budget [2000-2017]

Gilts

And, finally, the performance of gilts (the 8% Treasury 2021 is taken as a representative gilt) around the budget.

Daily returns for 8 Treasury 2021 for the three days around the Chancellor's Budget [2000-2017]

Summary

The following chart shows the average returns for the period 2000-2017 for each respective asset class for the three days around the Budget.

Average returns for the three days around Chancellor's Budget [2000-2017]

And the following chart shows the proportion of positive returns for the three asset classes in three days around the Budget.

Positive returns for the three days around Chancellor's Budget [2000-2017]

On average since 2000 the equity market has seen mildly positive daily returns on the day before the Budget and on Budget Day itself. But the most significant observation is that equities have been weak on the day after the budget.

On average the pound against the dollar has seen little change on the day before the Budget and on Budget Day itself, but has been strong on the day after the budget.

While, on average, gilts have been weak for all three days, with the weakest day being the day after the Budget.

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History of Bitcoin

The chart below plots the price of Bitcoin from July 2010 to November 2017. The price on the Y-axis is plotted on a logrithmic scale (as the price has grown exponentially).

History of Bitcoin chart

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CME Bitcoin Futures Contract Specifications

The following table gives the contract specifications for the proposed cash-settled CME Bitcoin futures.

Contract Unit 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
Minimum Price Fluctuation Outright: $5.00 per bitcoin = $25.00 per contract

Calendar Spread and Basis Trade at Index Close (BTIC): $1.00 per bitcoin = $5.00 per contract

Trading Hours CME Globex and CME ClearPort: 5:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CT Sunday – Friday

BTIC: 5:00 p.m. – 10:00 a.m. or 11:00 a.m. CT (4:00 p.m. London Time) Sunday – Friday

Product Code Outright: BTC

BTIC: BTB

Listing Cycle Nearest 2 months in the March Quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 “serial” months not in the March Quarterly cycle.

Contract months for initial listing: Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018.

Termination of Trading Last Day of Trading is the last Friday of contract month.

Trading in expiring futures terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on Last Day of Trading.

Position Limits Spot Position Limits are set at 1,000 contracts. A position accountability level of 5,000 contracts will be applied to positions in single months outside the spot month and in all months combined.  The reportable level will be 25 contracts.
Block Minimum 5 contracts
Price Limits Price limits for a given Business Day are made by reference to the most recent Bitcoin Futures settlement price, settled at 4:00 p.m. London time each Business Day.

Special price fluctuation limits equal to 7% above and below prior settlement price and 13% above and below prior settlement price and a price limit of 20% above or below the previous settlement price. Trading will not be permitted outside the 20% above and below prior settlement price.

Settlement Cash settled by reference to Final Settlement Price, equal to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) on Last Day of Trading.

Further info on Bitcoin futures at the CME web site.

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GBP and USD in 2017 3Q

GBP

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the UK pound for the third quarter 2017. For example, the UK pound increased 2.8% against the US Dollar in 3Q 2017.

GBP forex rates 3Q 2017

USD

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the US dollar for the third quarter 2017. For example, the US dollar fell 302% against the Euro in 3Q 2017.

USD forex rates 3Q 2017

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Currency rate changes 2017 1H

GBP

The following chart shows currency rate changes against GBP for the first half 2017. For example, GBP fell 2.9%% against the Euro.

Currency rate changes against GBP 2017 1H

USD

The following chart shows currency rate changes against USD for the first half 2017. For example, USD fell 7.9% against the Euro.

Currency rate changes against USD 2017 1H

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GBP and USD in 3Q 2016

GBP

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the UK pound for the third quarter 2016. For example, the UK pound fell 9.1% against the South African Rand in 3Q 2016.

GBP forex rates 3Q 2016

USD

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the US dollar for the third quarter 2016. For example, the US dollar increased 1.1% against the Canadian dollar in 3Q 2016.

USD forex rates 3Q 2016

 

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Currency rate changes 2016 1H

GBP

The following chart shows currency rate changes against GBP for the first half 2016. For example, GBP fell 22.5% against the Yen.

Currency rate changes against GBP 2016 1H

USD

The following chart shows currency rate changes against USD for the first half 2016. For example, USD increased 10.5% against GBP.

Currency rate changes against USD 2016 1H

 

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