GBP and USD in 2017 3Q

GBP

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the UK pound for the third quarter 2017. For example, the UK pound increased 2.8% against the US Dollar in 3Q 2017.

GBP forex rates 3Q 2017

USD

The following chart gives the changes in currency rate for the US dollar for the third quarter 2017. For example, the US dollar fell 302% against the Euro in 3Q 2017.

USD forex rates 3Q 2017

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International markets 2017 3Q YTD

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets over the first three quarters of 2017. 

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 3Q YTD returns

GBP

The following chart plots the GBP-adjusted returns (i.e. these are the returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets 2017 3Q YTD [GBP] returns

USD

The following chart plots the USD-adjusted returns (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets 2017 3Q YTD [USD] returns

 

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International markets 2017 3Q

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in the 3rd quarter 2017. 

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 3Q returns

GBP

The following chart plots the GBP-adjusted returns (i.e. these are the returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets 2017 3Q [GBP] returns

USD

The following chart plots the USD-adjusted returns (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets 2017 3Q [USD] returns

 

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International markets 2017 1H

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in the first half 2017.

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 1H

GBP

The following chart plots the GBP-adjusted returns (i.e. these are the returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets (GBP) 2017 1H

USD

The following chart plots the USD-adjusted returns (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets (USD) 2017 1H

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Currency rate changes 2017 1H

GBP

The following chart shows currency rate changes against GBP for the first half 2017. For example, GBP fell 2.9%% against the Euro.

Currency rate changes against GBP 2017 1H

USD

The following chart shows currency rate changes against USD for the first half 2017. For example, USD fell 7.9% against the Euro.

Currency rate changes against USD 2017 1H

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International markets 2017 1Q

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in the first quarter 2017. 

Domestic currency

International markets 2017 1Q returns

GBP

The returns are GBP-adjusted (i.e. these are returns for a GB pound investor).

International markets 2017 1Q returns [GBP]

USD

The returns are USD-adjusted (i.e. these are returns for a US dollar investor).

International markets 2017 1Q returns [USD]

 

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U.S. Tax Day

Tax Day in the United States refers to the day by which individuals must submit income tax returns to the federal government.

In the past Tax Day has moved around a bit, but since 1955 it has been fixed at 15 April. Although there are exceptions due to the close proximity of the Emancipation Day holiday in Washington State D.C. Such that since 2007 when 15 April falls on a Friday then Tax Day is moved to the following Monday, and when 15 April falls on a weekend Tax Day is moved to the following Tuesday.

This year, 2017, 15 April is a Saturday and so Tax Day will be Tuesday, 18 April.

It is probably not too controversial  a claim that most people dislike filling in forms and paying taxes. Could this dislike affect individual investors attitude to risk around the time of Tax Day and. if so. could that in aggregate be sufficient to influence equity returns around this period?

Let’s see…

The following chart plots the proportion of weeks that saw positive returns in the S&P 500 Index for the two weeks before Tax Day and for the one week following Tax Day for all years since 1955. For example, the S&P 500 had positive returns in the week two weeks before Tax Day in 69% of years since 1955.

S&P 500 in weeks around Tax Day [1955-2016] - Positive week returns

As can be seen, over the three-week period there was a moderate decline in the proportion of positive weekly returns.

The following chart looks at the same period and weekly frequency, but plots the average weekly returns.

S&P 500 in weeks around Tax Day [1955-2016] - Average week return

Here we can see relatively high returns two weeks before Tax Day, although this overlaps with the start of April which is usually a strong period for equities anyway. The week leading up to Tax Day is relatively weak, and then there’s something of a small relief(?) rally in the week following Tax Day.

Let’s now focus in on the days around Tax Day.

The following chart plots the proportion of days that saw positive returns in the five days around Tax Day. For example, since 1955 the S&P 500 Index has seen positive returns on Tax Day itself (TD(0D)) in 67% of years.

S&P 500 in days around Tax Day [1955-2016] - Positive day returns

Historically we can see that returns have been depressed leading up to Tax Day, with the strongest returns in the 5-day period seen on Tax Day itself.

The following chart looks at the same period and daily frequency, but plots the average daily returns.

S&P 500 in days around Tax Day [1955-2016] - Average day return

The same behaviour profile can be seen as in the previous chart. The weakest average daily returns in the period have been seen on the trading day two days before Tax Day. While the strongest average daily returns have been on Tax Day itself (with an average daily return ten times the average daily return for all days since 1955).

Conclusion

The results here are not strong, but there is some evidence that equities are relatively weak in the days immediately before Tax Day, but the market is strong on Tax Day itself.

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Chinese New Year – year of the rooster

This coming Saturday will be the start of the Chinese New Year.

The following chart plots the average performance of the S&P 500 Index for each animal year since 1950. For example, Ox years started in 1961, 1973, 1985, 1997, 2009; and the average performance of the market in those (Chinese) years was +14.0%.

NB. The Chinese calendar is based on the lunar year cycle and so performance has been calculated for each lunar year – not the corresponding calendar year.

Chinese calendar and S&P 500 [1950-2017]

The Chinese New Year starting this Saturday will be the Year of the Rooster!

This is not necessarily good news for investors. Since 1950 rooster years have had the worst average returns of the S&P 500 Index of any of the Chinese zodiac animals. Over the last 50 or so years the average lunar year return for rooster years has been -4.1%.

The year just ending was the year of the monkey. On average monkey years have seen an S&P 500 return of 9.8%. In the monkey year just passed the actual S&P 500 return was 22.5%.


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United States presidential inauguration day

The United States presidential inauguration day used to be on 4th March, but in 1937 the Twentieth Amendment changed the date of inauguration day to 20 January. If that day is a Sunday, inauguration day is moved to 21 January.

Has this day had any significant effect on the stock market?

Let’s see.

The following chart plots the daily returns for the S&P 500 Index for inauguration day (ID) in the years from 1953 to 2009. Note: the chart only includes inauguration days for first terms (on the grounds that the market most likely knows what to expect with second-term presidents).

US president inauguration days (first term) [1953-2009] 1

As can be seen shares have been weak on inauguration days. Since the 1963 inauguration of Lyndon B. Johnson the S&P 500 has been down on every inauguration day.

The following chart plots the average daily returns for the S&P 500 Index for the trading day before inauguration day, the day itself and the day after.

US president inauguration days (first term) [1953-2009] 3

Since 1953 the average daily return for the S&P 500 on inauguration day has been -1.1%. For the day after ID the average daily return is 0.7%, so there does seem to be a partial relief rally afterwards.

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Trading days around US presidential elections

How does the UK market trade in the days around US presidential elections?

US presidential elections are held every fours years on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November (hence they are always between 2nd and 8th November). The newly elected president takes office at midday on Inauguration Day (20 January the following year).

In 2016 the US presidential election will take place on 8 November.

The table below shows the results of analysing the FT All-Share index for the 9 days around each US election since 1972.

  • Days 1-4: are the four trading days leading up to the election
  • Day 5: is the election day
  • Days 6-9: are the four trading days following the election
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Proportion of days up(%) 45 73 64 55 64 55 45 55 45
Average daily return(%) 0.56 0.33 0.39 0.36 0.64 -0.18 -0.49 0.29 -0.39
Standard deviation 2.45 0.66 1.11 1.05 1.35 0.95 2.09 1.17 1.28

The average return for each day is shown in the chart below.

FTSE All-Share around US presidential elections [1972-2012]

As can be seen, the UK market tends to trade stronger in the four days before the election, and is weaker in the few days following the election. The strongest day of the period has been the election day itself.


The above is an extract from the Harriman Stock Market Almanac.

See also: other articles on politics and markets.

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