Football (soccer) and the Stock Market

This article presents a brief review and listing of academic papers on football (soccer) and the stock market.

The main focus of research on this topic is on whether the results of football games have an effect on share prices – the majority of papers find that they do. For academics, the interest here is that football results provide an easy and quantifiable proxy for mood, and much of this research therefore comes under the ambit of behavioural finance. Further, the existence of betting markets on football results allow researches to add, and indeed quantify, the relationship between expectations and results and to study the effect of their variance.


Academic research on football and the market focuses on three areas (which is how this review is structured)-

  1. Clubs
  2. National teams
  3. FIFA World Cup

1. Clubs

Zuber et al (2005) found that the price behaviour of publicly-quoted English Premier League teams was insensitive to game results; they concluded that a new type of investor gained value from mere share ownership. By contrast, Stadtmann (2006) studied the share price of Borussia Dortmund and found that game results were an important driver of the share price. The research of Berument et al (2006) was partly consistent with both the preceding in finding that the Turkish team Besiktas’s win against foreign rivals in the Winner’s Cup did increase stock market returns, but that no such effect was found for two other Turkish teams: Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray.

Palomino et al (2009) found that stock prices did react strongly to game results generating significant abnormal returns and trading volumes; and, further, that winning team share prices experienced a high level of overreaction. Their research also studied the football betting market and found that while betting odds were a good predictor of game outcomes, investors largely ignored these odds, and that betting information predicted stock price overreactions to game results.

The research of Benkraiem et al (2009) was largely consistent with those that found game results had an influence on returns and trading volumes; their analysis further showed that the extent of the share price effect and timing of it was dependent on the type of result (win, draw, lose) and match venue (home, away). Berument et al (2009) argued that the share price effect on football teams quoted on the Istanbul Exchange increased with the fanaticism of the team’s supporters.

Scholtens and Peenstra (2009) research was again consistent with the finding that match results affected share prices (significant and positive for victories and negative for defeats); and they further found that the effect was significantly stronger for defeats, and stronger in European than for national competitions.

Like Palomino et al (2009), Bernile and Lyandres (2011) analysed the football betting markets to find that investors are overly optimistic about their teams’ prospects before games and disappointed afterwards, which leads to abnormal negative returns after games.

Bell et al (2012), found that share returns were more influenced by important games for English clubs, where “important” was defined as a game having a particular significance for the club’s league position. Godinho and Cerqueira (2014) also incorporated the concept of game importance; they built a model for 13 clubs of six different European countries that weights games according to a new measure of match importance and using the betting markets to isolate the unexpected component of match results; this model finds a significant link between the results and share performance.

Berkowitz and Depken (2014) found that share prices reacted asymmetrically to game results: the negative effect being greater and quicker for losers than the positive effect for winners. They suggested the reason for this is that losing is a stronger predictor of future losing (and lower financial performance) than winning is a predictor of future winning.

2. National teams

Ashton, Gerrard and Hudson (2003) found a strong association between the England football team results and subsequent daily changes in the FTSE 100 index. However the methodology employed by Ashton et al (2003) was later criticised by Klein, Zwergel and Fock (2009) who rejected the presence of any link. In response, Ashton, Gerrard and Hudson (2011) carried out new analysis, using a larger dataset, and re-asserted that a link does exist for the original study period of 1984-2002, although they report that the strength of the link has declined over the subsequent period 2002-2009.

Edmans et al (2007) also found a link between national soccer results of the market; for example, significant markets falls after soccer losses, and effect stronger for smaller stocks and in more important games.

3. FIFA World Cup

Regarding the FIFA World Cup academic research tends to focus on two areas: the effect of the announcement of the World Cup host and market behaviour during and immediately after the World Cup.

Obi, Surujlal and Okubena (2009) found negative abnormal returns for South African shares in the lead up to the announcement that South Africa would host the 2010 World Cup, followed by positive abnormal returns in the aftermath of the announcement. Abuzayed (2013) found evidence of a positive abnormal market return in Qatar linked to the announcement of that country being host for the 2022 FIFA World Cup; and further that the effect was strongest in the service sector.

Vieira (2012) analysed the 2010 FIFA World Cup and found no link between games results and subsequent market behaviour.

Kaplanski and Levy (2010), found that the average return on the US equity market over the period of the World Cup was -2.6% (compared to an average return of +1.2% for similar periods at other times); this effect did not depend on the games’ results and as the aggregate effect depended on many games it was therefore robust. This result was supported by Ralph (2010) who also found an average return of -2% for the same conditions. Kaplanski and Levy (2013) updated their previous research and found that although an abnormal profit still existed for the 2010 World Cup, the price pattern was different from previous World Cups (possibly due the publication of news of this effect just before the 2010 World Cup). They therefore suggest that this effect will vanish in the future.


INDEX (of papers listed below)

[Papers listed in reverse date order; indicates major paper.]

  1. Asymmetric Reactions to Good and Bad News as Market Efficiency: Evidence from Publicly-Traded Soccer Clubs [2014]
  2. The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams [2014]
  3. Sentiment, Irrationality and Market Efficiency: The Case of the 2010 FIFA World Cup [2013]
  4. Sport and emerging capital markets: market reaction to the 2022 World Cup announcement [2013]
  5. Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams: Reassessing the Informational Value of Betting Odds [2013]
  6. Moneyball in the Turkish Football League: A Stock Behavior Analysis of Galatasaray and Fenerbahce Based on Information Salience [2013]
  7. The Effect of Soccer Performance on Stock Return: Empirical Evidence From “The Big Three Clubs” of Turkish Soccer League [2013]
  8. Market Reaction to Sports Sentiment: Evidence from the European Football Championship 2008 [2013]
  9. Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club’s share price [2012]
  10. Investor sentiment and market reaction: evidence on 2010 FIFA World Cup [2012]
  11. The Effect of Performance of Soccer Clubs on Their Stock Prices: Evidence from Turkey [2011]
  12. Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case of Soccer [2011]
  13. Do national soccer results really impact on the stock market? [2011]
  14. Is There a Correlation Between World Cups and S&P 500 Performance? [2010]
  15. Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market [2010]
  16. Sporting Performances and the Volatility of Listed English Football Clubs [2010]
  17. Reconsidering the impact of national soccer results on the FTSE 100 [2009]
  18. Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns: an event study [2009]
  19. Soccer, stock returns and fanaticism: Evidence from Turkey [2009]
  20. Market reaction to sporting results: The case of European listed football clubs [2009]
  21. Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting [2009]
  22. South African Equity Market Reaction to the 2010 World Cup Announcement [2009]
  23. Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns [2007]
  24. Performance of soccer on the stock market: Evidence from Turkey [2006]
  25. Frequent news and pure signals: the case of a publicly traded football club [2006]
  26. Investor–fans? An examination of the performance of publicly traded English Premier League teams [2005]
  27. Economic impact of national sporting success: evidence from the London stock exchange [2003]
  28. Estimating the value of the Premier League or the worlds most profitable investment project [2002]

Asymmetric Reactions to Good and Bad News as Market Efficiency: Evidence from Publicly-Traded Soccer Clubs
Authors [Year]: Jason P. Berkowitz and Craig A. Depken, II [2014]
Journal [Citations]:
Abstract: Event studies suffer from a number of potential shortcomings, most notable the possibility of the market reacting to an event before it actually occurs. To avoid this problem, this paper investigates how the stock prices of publicly traded English football (soccer) teams respond to the outcomes of soccer matches which provide two clear and simultaneous signals, good news for the winner and bad news for the loser. We first establish a link between on-field performance and a club’s financial performance and then show that the market responds asymmetrically to good news and bad news, punishing losers faster than winners. This last result arises because losing is a stronger predictor of future losing, and lower financial performance, than winning is a predictor of future winning.
Ref: AA912


The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams
Authors [Year]: Pedro Godinho and Pedro Cerqueira [2014]
Journal [Citations]: GEMF Working Paper, 2014-09
Abstract: In this study we analyse the link between stock returns and results in national league matches for 13 clubs of six different European countries. We assume that the stock prices should only respond to the unexpected component of match results, and we use betting odds to separate the expected component of the results from the unexpected one. We consider both the unweighted results (each match having the same weight in the model) and the results weighted by a new measure of match importance that we develop. We conclude that, when this measure is used to weight the unexpected component of the results, there is a significant link between the results and stock performance for 12 out of the 13 considered clubs. So, this link can be considered to be quite consistent. We also conclude that using this measure of match importance to weight the unexpected component of the match outcomes leads to an improvement in the results we achieve.
Ref: AA926


Sentiment, Irrationality and Market Efficiency: The Case of the 2010 FIFA World Cup
Authors [Year]: Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy [2013]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of Behavioral Economics,
Abstract: Soccer games create sentiment, which affects stock prices. The World Cups before 2010 created exploitable abnormal profit in the U.S. stock market. The effect was not exploited, presumably because it was unknown before the 2010 games. However, just before the 2010 World Cup, the exploitable effect was published and widely cited by practitioners who even suggested recipe how to exploit it. Although the abnormal profit in 2010 surpassed 5%, the information on the abnormal profit created a price pattern which is different from those corresponding to the previous World Cups. Like other market anomalies, we expect that the trading activity of sophisticated investors will restore market efficiency, implying that this new effect will vanish in the future.
Ref: AA611


Sport and emerging capital markets: market reaction to the 2022 World Cup announcement
Authors [Year]: Bana Abuzayed [2013]
Journal [Citations]: International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 6(2), pp122 – 141 [1]
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine how the announcement of the mega sport event of the 2022 FIFA World Cup affected the stock market return and volatility for the hosting country (Qatar) and other economically related countries (United Arab of Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman). The study found evidence of abnormal market return in the hosting country; in particular, the service sector is the most affected sector. However, it failed to find any evidence of abnormal return for the rest of selected Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. On the other hand, no significant volatility effects were found.
Ref: AA911


Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams: Reassessing the Informational Value of Betting Odds
Authors [Year]: Massimiliano Castellani, Pierpaolo Pattitoni and Roberto Patuelli [2013]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of Sports Economics, 2013(Sep)
Abstract: We analyze the links between soccer match results, betting odds, and stock returns of all listed European soccer teams. Using an event-study approach, we measure positive (negative) abnormal returns following wins (ties and losses). Additionally, we analyze the role, which we find to be nonsignificant, of betting odds in shaping market reactions to unexpected results. We propose an alternative econometric approach, using seemingly unrelated regressions models, to take into account the problem of overlapping events. Abnormal returns following unexpected results are then found to be statistically significant and to magnify the positive (negative) effects of wins (losses).
Ref: AA917


Moneyball in the Turkish Football League: A Stock Behavior Analysis of Galatasaray and Fenerbahce Based on Information Salience
Authors [Year]: Caner Özdurak and Veysel Ulusoy [2013]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 3(4), pp1-12
Abstract: Football clubs listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange suggests an interesting way of testing stock price behaviors to different types of news about both sportive success related and non-sports related events.Strong football club stock price reactions to surprising game results and the lack of reaction to betting odds is related with the dominated structure of Turkish Football League by the big four; Galatasaray(GS), Fenerbahce(FB),Besiktas (BJK) and Trabzonspor (TS). Coherent with this idea we conclude that GS and FB stocks react strongly to unexpected game results and derby matches. Other local league match wins do not have such an impact on stock prices. Moreover especially for FB related news rather than game results such as match-fixing case explain most of the price volatilities of the sport stocks. There is also some limited support for the notion that GS and FB stock prices are more affected by the bad news compared to good news.
Ref: AA918


The Effect of Soccer Performance on Stock Return: Empirical Evidence From “The Big Three Clubs” of Turkish Soccer League
Authors [Year]: Mehmet Saraç and Feyyaz Zeren [2013]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 3(5), pp299-314
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of soccer performance on the clubs’ stock returns through an empirical analysis applied on Turkish case. The study is based on the data of Beşiktaş, Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe, considered “the big three” in Turkey. The sampleperiodspanstheperiodbetween2005to2012.Multipleregressionmodelsare employed where the effect of performance on the stock return is analyzed by controlling such variables as the market index, the type of the match (i.e., international or derby), the betting odds prior to the match, the venue of the match, the lag between the match date and market opening date and the market index return. The findings show that the soccer performance is significantly and positively related with the stock returns for all the three clubs. The relationship is found stronger in Beşiktaş compared to the other two.
Ref: AA919


Market Reaction to Sports Sentiment: Evidence from the European Football Championship 2008
Authors [Year]: Elisabete F. Simões Vieira [2013]
Journal [Citations]: Scholarly Journal of Business Administration, 3(4), pp 67-79
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate whether investor sentiment influences the stock price reaction to football match results, considering the 2008 European Football Championship as a proxy for investor sentiment. We use regression analysis in order to relate football results with the market return. Average return is more negative on days following a loss than following a win, suggesting that the loss effect is most pronounced that the win effect, which is in line with the Football hypothesis. It seems that losses have a particular effect on investor mood.We find evidence of a negative market reaction after football wins, which might be explained by the fact that the market during the studied period was bearish. This study provides evidence for the influence of sport results on investor mood as well as on the share prices reaction, for the loss situations. In what concerns the wins, the results suggest that it does not affect significantly the market.This study contributes on the recent behavioral finance research on the effect of investor sentiment on market reaction. Further research can be focused on major football championships, such as the Olympic Games, and on different periods, to control for bear
Ref: AA920


Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club’s share price
Authors [Year]: Adrian R. Bell, Chris Brooks, David Matthews and Charles Sutcliffe [2012]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Economics, 44(26), pp3435-3452 [12]
Abstract: This article considers the impact of match results on the stock returns of English football clubs. We propose that the magnitude of the response to a given result depends on the importance of the game, which is measured in two ways. First, we consider the extent to which the clubs are close rivals vying for similar league positions, as winning such games is particularly significant. Second, we argue that each individual game becomes more important for those clubs likely to be promoted or relegated as the season draws to a close, since a given match will have increasing information content concerning the final league position of the club. Using a fairly large panel comprising data for 19 clubs, we find some support for the notion that stock prices are affected more by the results of important matches than matches of lesser importance. We also observe that the difference between the number of points the club secures from a given match, and the number it was expected to secure, affects its stock price, as does the number of goals that the club under question scores in the match, relative to its competitor.
Ref: AA903


Investor sentiment and market reaction: evidence on 2010 FIFA World Cup
Authors [Year]: Elisabete F. Simões Vieira [2012]
Journal [Citations]: International Journal of Economics and Accounting, 3(1), pp51-76 [1]
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine whether investor sentiment influences the stock price reaction to football matches results, giving some contribute to the behaviour finance, or if investors react in a rational way, giving evidence of standard finance. To proxy for investor sentiment, we analyse the 2010 FIFA World Cup of South Africa. Globally, the study provides no evidence of a direct relationship between games results and the subsequent market reaction, not documenting a change in investor mood caused by soccer games outcomes. This paper contributes to the recent literature on the asset pricing impact of behaviour biases. The global results are more in line with standard finance than on behaviour finance, suggesting that stock prices are not influenced by economically–neutral events that can affect the investor sentiment, and, consequently, the stock prices.
Ref: AA916


The Effect of Performance of Soccer Clubs on Their Stock Prices: Evidence from Turkey
Authors [Year]: Ender Demir and Hakan Danis [2011]
Journal [Citations]: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade , 47(4), pp58 – 70 [4]
Abstract: This paper investigates the stock price reactions of Turkish soccer clubs to game results, according to match venue and competition type. Betting odds are included to control expectations. The findings indicate that match results of the listed soccer clubs affect abnormal returns, and there is an asymmetric stock market reaction to both wins and losses. The results also indicate that a win in a European Cup does not affect clubs’ stock returns. However, a domestic win effect is significantly higher than the effect of a European Cup win. The price reaction of stocks also depends on the type of corporation that the clubs establish when they go public.
Ref: AA910


Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case of Soccer
Authors [Year]: Gennaro Bernile and Evgeny Lyandres [2011]
Journal [Citations]: Financial Management, 40(2), pp357–380 [18]
Abstract: We examine the extent to which the stock market’s inefficient responses to resolutions of uncertainty depend on investors’ biased ex ante beliefs regarding the probability distribution of future event outcomes or their ex post irrational reactions to these outcomes. We use a sample of publicly traded European soccer clubs and analyze their returns around important matches. Using a novel proxy for investors’ expectations based on contracts traded on betting exchanges (prediction markets), we find that within our sample, investor sentiment is attributable, in part, to a systematic bias in investors’ ex ante expectations. Investors are overly optimistic about their teams’ prospects ex ante and, on average, end up disappointed ex post, leading to negative postgame abnormal returns. Our evidence may have important implications for firms’ investment decisions and corporate control transactions.
Ref: AA914


Do national soccer results really impact on the stock market?
Authors [Year]: J. K. Ashton, B. Gerrard and R. Hudson [2011]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Economics, 43(26), pp3709-3717 [5]
Abstract: This study is a response to Klein et al. (2008), which was highly critical of earlier work by Ashton et al. (2003). This work considering the link between international soccer results and stock market returns was challenged by Klein et al. (2008), who reject the presence and importance of this link. In response, this work provides a reassessment of the link between international soccer results and stock market returns within Ashton et al. (2003). This new analysis extends the original work by using a larger dataset, employing an extended range of tests and allowing for outliers. It is reported that, contrary to the findings of Klein et al. (2008), the link between international soccer results and stock market prices does indeed exist particularly within the sample period 1984–2002 used by Ashton et al. (2003). After extending the dataset to include observations from 2002 until 2009, it is reported that the effect on stock market returns has declined in importance over this period, particularly the impact of wins.
Ref: AA915


Is There a Correlation Between World Cups and S&P 500 Performance?
Authors [Year]: Baddour, Ralph [2010]
Journal [Citations]:
Abstract: Coinciding with the start of the 2010 edition of the FIFA World Cup it is fitting to explore if historically there has been any significant correlation between this event and stock market performance. Although it has been previously reported that there is a strong correlation between results of individual football matches and corresponding, short-term local stock market trends, there has only been one unpublished study examining the potential relationship between periodic, multi-week, multi-national sporting events and returns of a broad stock market index. Building on the work of Kaplansky and Levy (2008), by using data from 1950 to 2006, it was shown empirically that the S&P 500 Composite Index has an expected return of -2% over the period of a FIFA World Cup tournament. This relationship could be classified as a subset of the calendar effect class of behavioral finance anomalies.
Ref: AA473


Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market
Authors [Year]: Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy [2010]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(2), pp535-553 [20]
Abstract: In a recently published paper, Edmans, García, and Norli (2007) reveal a strong association between results of soccer games and local stock returns. Inspired by their work, we propose a novel approach to exploit this effect on the aggregate international level with the following three unique features: i) The aggregate effect does not depend on the games’ results; hence, the effect is an exploitable predictable effect. ii) The aggregate effect is based on many games; hence, it is very large and highly significant. We find that the average return on the U.S. market over the World Cup’s effect period is – 2.58%, compared to +1.21% for all-days average returns over the same period length. iii) Exploiting the aggregate effect is involved with trading in a single index for a relatively long period.
Ref: AA603


Sporting Performances and the Volatility of Listed English Football Clubs
Authors [Year]: Ramzi Benkraiem and Frédéric Le Roy [2010]
Journal [Citations]: European Financial Management, [4]
Abstract: This study investigates the effect of sporting performances on the volatility of listed English football clubs. The theoretical background is based on the importance of intangible assets in the football industry and the difficulty in evaluating them. This results in the hypothesis that sporting results affect the volatility of share prices. The empirical analysis is based on the family of ARCH models and relates to a sample of English football clubs listed on the on AIM and included in the Dow-Jones STOXX Football index. The findings show that sporting performances have a significant impact on the stock market valuation of football clubs. The magnitude of the stock market reaction also depends on the nature of the result (defeat, draw or win) and on the match venue (home or away). Defeats at home produce the most volatility, raising the question of shareholder motivations of football clubs.
Ref: AA907


Reconsidering the impact of national soccer results on the FTSE 100
Authors [Year]: Christian Klein and Bernhard Zwergel and J. Henning Fock [2009]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Economics, 41(25), pp3287-3294 [7]
Abstract: In past decades, many empirical studies revealed return anomalies in many different asset classes and markets. Very recent publications have, however, even found evidence that stock markets react to the results of soccer matches. In this article, we argue that such empirical studies should be analysed carefully; we thus endorse the use of replication studies to verify results. Consequently, by rebuilding the study of Ashton et al. (2003), we are able to detect mistakes in the empirical set-up. Based on these findings, we demonstrate how even minor flaws can have a crucial influence on the results of such studies and point out pitfalls that are frequently encountered. We furthermore emphasize the importance of robustness checks to validate the results of empirical studies.
Ref: AA755


Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns: an event study
Authors [Year]: Bert Scholtens and Wijtze Peenstra [2009]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Economics, 41(25), pp3231-3237 [23]
Abstract: We analyse the effect of results of football matches on the stock market performance of football teams. We analyse 1274 matches of eight teams in the national and European competition during 2000–2004. We find that the stock market response is significant and positive for victories and negative for defeats. The response is significantly stronger in the case of defeat. The response is stronger for matches in the European competition than for those in the national competition. Unexpected results have a stronger impact for European matches than expected ones but this is not the case in the national competition.
Ref: AA896


Soccer, stock returns and fanaticism: Evidence from Turkey
Authors [Year]: M. Hakan Berument, Nildag Basak Ceylan and Gulin Ogut-Eker [2009]
Journal [Citations]: The Social Science Journal, 46(3), pp594–600 [17]
Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of three major soccer teams’ wins on the returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We argue that the effect of soccer wins on ISE returns increases with the fanaticism of the teams’ supporters.
Ref: AA897


Market reaction to sporting results: The case of European listed football clubs
Authors [Year]: Ramzi Benkraiem, Waël Louhichi and Pierre Marques [2009]
Journal [Citations]: Management Decision, 47(1), pp.100 – 109 [20]
Abstract: The empirical analysis shows that the sporting results of listed football clubs affect both the abnormal returns and the trading volume around the dates of matches. The movement (positive or negative) and the time when the impact occurs (before or after the match) differ according to the nature of the result (defeat, draw or win) and the match venue (home or away). Findings in this study imply that the success of investments in listed football clubs requires a regular follow-up of their sporting performances.
Ref: AA904


Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting
Authors [Year]: Frederic Palomino, Luc Renneboog and Chendi Zhang [2009]
Journal [Citations]: Journal of Corporate Finance, 15(3), pp368–387 [39]
Abstract: Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts’ expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes themselves. The stock market reacts strongly to news about game results, generating significant abnormal returns and trading volumes. We find evidence that the abnormal returns for the winning teams do not reflect rational expectations but are high due to overreactions induced by investor sentiment. This is not the case for losing teams. There is no market reaction to the release of new betting information although these betting odds are excellent predictors of the game outcomes. The discrepancy between the strong market reaction to game results and the lack of reaction to betting odds may not only be the result from overreaction to game results but also from the lack of informational content or information salience of the betting information. Therefore, we also examine whether betting information can be used to predict short-run stock returns subsequent to the games. We reach mixed results: we conclude that investors ignore some non-salient public information such as betting odds, and betting information predicts a stock price overreaction to game results which is influenced by investors’ mood (especially when the teams are strongly expected to win).
Ref: AA909


South African Equity Market Reaction to the 2010 World Cup Announcement
Authors [Year]: Pat Obi, J. Surujlal and O. Okubena [2009]
Journal [Citations]:
Abstract: On Saturday, May 15, 2004, the world football governing body FIFA announced that the 2010 World CupTM would be held in South Africa. This would be the first time the football tournament had gone to an African nation. This study examines the South African equity market impact of the announcement of the 2010 FIFA World CupTM. Abnormal returns of the JSE all share index are calculated around the period of the announcement. Using standard event study methodologies, results show that pre-event abnormal returns are negative and statistically significant. Abnormal return in the event month, while positive, is not significant. However, there was a positive wealth effect created in the aftermath of the announcement evidenced by persistent positive post-event abnormal returns. While investors may have doubted the cost effectiveness of hosting the games before the announcement, the positive post-event abnormal returns seem to suggest a steady but incremental market reaction to a positive view of the event.
Ref: AA913


Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns
Authors [Year]: Edmans, Alex and Diego García and Øyvind Norli [2007]
Journal [Citations]: The Journal of Finance, 62(4), pp1967–1998 [290]
Abstract: This paper investigates the stock market reaction to sudden changes in investor mood. Motivated by psychological evidence of a strong link between soccer outcomes and mood, we use international soccer results as our primary mood variable. We find a significant market decline after soccer losses. For example, a loss in the World Cup elimination stage leads to a next-day abnormal stock return of −49 basis points. This loss effect is stronger in small stocks and in more important games, and is robust to methodological changes. We also document a loss effect after international cricket, rugby, and basketball games.
Ref: AA387


Performance of soccer on the stock market: Evidence from Turkey
Authors [Year]: Hakan Berument, Nildag Basak Ceylan and Esin Gozpinar [2006]
Journal [Citations]: The Social Science Journal, 43(4), pp695–699 [31]
Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of soccer success on stock market returns for three major Turkish teams (Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray) after certain characteristics of the stock market are controlled for. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that Beşiktaş’s win against foreign rivals in the Winner’s Cup increases stock market returns. The same effect is not present for the other two big teams (Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray). The day of the week effect on the stock market and the relationship between risk and return are also presented.
Ref: AA895


Frequent news and pure signals: the case of a publicly traded football club
Authors [Year]: Georg Stadtmann [2006]
Journal [Citations]: Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 53(4), pp485–504 [26]
Abstract: We use stock market data for Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. KGaA – one of the leading German football clubs – for an application of the news model. Owing to the specific characteristics of the news-generating process, the case of a publicly traded sport club is a very appropriate candidate for testing this model. By applying a traditional as well as a reversed news model, we elaborate whether new information can explain subsequent changes in the stock price of Borussia Dortmund. We find that sport as well as corporate governance-related variables are important drivers of the stock price.
Ref: AA898


Investor–fans? An examination of the performance of publicly traded English Premier League teams
Authors [Year]: Richard A. Zuber, Patrick Yiu, Reinhold P. Lamb and John M. Gandar [2005]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Financial Economics, 15(5), pp305-313 [15]
Abstract: This paper considers the game-related performance of the publicly traded teams in the English Premier League. It is found that the price behaviour of the publicly traded soccer team market to be very insensitive to game outcomes in terms of both returns and trading volume. It is believed that the results point to a new type of investor in professional sports – these investor fans do not trade on information that may affect cash flows but, rather, appear to obtain value from mere ownership.
Ref: AA899


Economic impact of national sporting success: evidence from the London stock exchange
Authors [Year]: J. K. Ashton, B. Gerrard and R. Hudson [2003]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Economics Letters, 10(12), pp783-785 [81]
Abstract: In this article strong association is reported between the performance of the England football team and subsequent daily changes in the FTSE 100 index, representing the price of shares in the 100 largest companies traded on the London stock exchange.
Ref: AA893


Estimating the value of the Premier League or the worlds most profitable investment project
Authors [Year]: Kjetil K. Haugen and Arild Hervik [2002]
Journal [Citations]: Applied Economics Letters, 9(2), pp117-120 [11]
Abstract: This paper shows that market values for UK football (soccer) teams may be described by a remarkably simple regression model. This model is used to estimate the value of the Premier league. A tentative estimate of the Norwegian club Rosenborg Ballklubb is also established. As Rosenborg Ballklub is a ‘membership club’ – meaning that a small entrance fee (independent of the clubs performance) is the real price of ‘a share’ in the club – the return of an investment in the club is shown to be ‘unbelievable’.
Ref: AA908

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