FTSE 100 daily returns heatmap

This updates a previous article with the latest figures for the average daily change and positive daily returns of the FTSE 100 Index.

The table formatting and analysis is largely as before; except the charts now use a smoother gradient of colours to indicate number magnitude.

Average daily returns

FTSE 100 average daily returns heat map [2015]

 Positive daily returns

FTSE 100 positive daily returns [2015]


Other daily return heatmaps.

 

 

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Top Ten EconTalk Podcasts of 2015

EconTalk is an excellent series of interviews hosted by Russ Roberts. Our favourite EconTalk podcasts of 2015 are listed below.

1 Podcast icon_Planet Money Campbell Harvey on Randomness, Skill, and Investment Strategies [23 Mar 15]
2 Podcast icon_Planet Money Michael Matheson Miller on Poverty, Inc [02 Nov 15]
3 Podcast icon_Planet Money Noah Smith on Whether Economics is a Science [28 Dec 15]
4 Podcast icon_Planet Money Nathaniel Popper on Bitcoin and Digital Gold [08 Jun 15]
5 Podcast icon_Planet Money Luigi Zingales on the Costs and Benefits of the Financial Sector [02 Feb 15]
6 Podcast icon_Planet Money George Selgin on Monetary Policy and the Great Recession [14 Dec 15]
7 Podcast icon_Planet Money Mike Munger on the 500th episode [24 Dec 15]
8 Podcast icon_Planet Money Matt Ridley on Climate Change [29 Jun 15]
9 Podcast icon_Planet Money Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Precautionary Principle and Genetically Modified Organisms [19 Jan 15]
10 Podcast icon_Planet Money Vernon Smith and James Otteson on Adam Smith [06 Apr 15]

 

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Strong/weak sectors in February

Strong sectors

The table below lists the sectors that have historically out-performed the market in February.

Sector TIDM
Aerospace & Defense
General Industrials
General Retailers
Industrial Engineering
Oil & Gas Producers
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution

Weak sectors

The following table lists the sectors that have been weak in February.

Sector TIDM
Electronic & Electrical Equipment
Financial Services
Fixed Line Telecommunications
Mobile Telecommunications
Technology Hardware & Equipment

 

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The Stock Market in February

February is currently on something of a roll. Since 2009 the market has been up every year in February. This is a far better record than any other month of the year. And, further, since 1994 the market has only seen significant negative returns in three years. Since 1970 the average return of the FTSE All-Share Index in February has been 1.6%, with the month seeing positive returns in 63% of years. There’s no obvious reason why the market has been so strong in recent years in this month; although one possible explication might be that, also in recent years, shares have been weak in January and so they experience a bounce back rally in February.

Monthly returns of FTSE All Share Index - February (1984-2015)

In an average February the market tends to rise for the first two-and-a-half weeks and then drifts lower for the rest of the month.

Mid-cap v large-cap

A feature of February is that, with January, it is the best month for mid-cap stocks relative to the large caps. Since 2000 on average the FTSE 250 Index has out-performed the FTSE 100 Index by 1.7 percentage points in this month.

FTSE 100 v S&P 500

On the international front, February is one of the four months in the year that the FTSE 100 Index has historically out-performed the S&P 500 Index, although the out-performance is attenuated once currency is taken into account as GBPUSD is historically weak in February.

Sectors

The strong sectors in February tend to be Chemicals, Construction & Materials, General Retailers, Household Goods, Mining, and Oil Equipment; while the weak sectors are Electronic & Electrical Equipment, Financial Services, and Technology Hardware & Equipment.

And it’s a busy month for analysts as there are more FTSE 100 results announced during the month than any other ­ 39 companies announce their prelims in February (as do 56 FTSE 250 companies).

Aside from shares historically this has been a strong month for gold and silver.

Diary

Dates to note this February are: 4 Feb ­ MPC interest rate announcement at 12 noon, 5 Feb ­ US Nonfarm payroll report, and 16 Feb ­ President’s Day (when the will be NYSE closed). The 15th of the month will see the 10th anniversary of the controversial flotation of QinetiQ. And, finally, 8 February is the Chinese New Year; this new year will be the year of the monkey. Since 1950 the average return in monkey years has been 7.3%.


Article first appeared in Money Observer

Further articles on the market in February.

 

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First trading day of February

Next Monday will be the first trading day (FTD) of February.

Since 1984, the FTSE 100 Index has risen on average 0.56% on the first trading day of February. The index has had a positive return on this day in 58% of years since 1984.

Since 2000, the performance has been even stronger on the February FTD, with an average return of 0.80% on the day, and with positive returns seen in 75% of years (making it the second strongest month FTD of the year).

The following chart shows the returns for every February FTD since 1984.

First trading day of February (1984-2015)

 

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Last trading day of January

Tomorrow will be the last trading day (LTD) of January.

Since 1984 the market has on average risen 0.14% on the LTD of January, with positive returns in 58% of all years (although since 2000 this has fallen to just 31%).

The following chart shows the FTSE 100 Index returns for every January LTD since 1984.

Last trading day of January (1984-2015)

 

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Top Ten Planet Money Podcasts of 2015

We’re great fans of the Planet Money podcasts. In our humble opinion the following were the best episodes in 2015.

1 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 416: Why The Price Of Coke Didn’t Change For 70 Years
2 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 621: When Luddites Attack
3 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 608: Shorters Gonna Short
4 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 606: Spreadsheets!
5 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 502: The Afterlife Of A T-Shirt
6 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 671: An Insider Trader Tells All
7 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 657: The Tale Of The Onion King
8 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 632: The Chicken Tax
9 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 500: The Humble Innovation At The Heart Of The Global Economy
10 Podcast icon_Planet Money Episode 644: How Much Does This Cow Weigh?

 

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World markets performance 2015: 4Q, 2H, Full Year [USD]

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in 2015 for the final quarter, second half and full year. 

The figures are adjusted for US dollars; so these are the returns for a US investor.


Fourth quarter

Market returns for October – December 2015

International markets 2015 4Q [USD]


Second half

Market returns for July – December 2015

International markets 2015 2H [USD]


Full year

Market returns for January – December 2015

International markets 2015 Full Year [USD]


Consolidated

The above three time periods (4Q, 2H, Full Year) are consolidated into the one chart below.

International markets 2015 - 4Q, 2H, Full Year [USD]

Data

The following table has the data for the charts.

Market 4Q(%) 2H(%) Full Year(%)
AEX [Netherlands] 2.0 -8.8 -6.6
Bovespa [Brazil] -4.1 -36.0 -41.8
Brent Oil -22.4 -40.5 -34.7
BSE Sensex [India] -1.6 -10.0 -9.9
CAC 40 [France] 1.2 -5.6 -2.6
DAX [Germany] 8.1 -4.2 -1.7
Dow Jones Industrial Average [US] 7.0 -1.1 -2.2
FTSE 100 [UK] 0.3 -10.1 -10.1
FTSE 250 [UK] 1.8 -6.7 2.5
FTSE MIB [Italy] -2.2 -7.0 1.1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 1.1 -25.9 -17.6
Gold -4.8 -9.5 -10.4
Hang Seng [Hong Kong] 5.0 -16.5 -7.1
IBEX 35 [Spain] -3.0 -13.6 -16.7
Nasdaq Comp [US] 8.4 0.4 5.7
Nikkei 225 [Japan] 9.1 -4.3 8.5
Platinum -5.0 -19.2 -28.2
RTS [Russia] -13.1 -37.4 -18.5
S&P 500 [US] 6.5 -0.9 -0.7
S&P/ASX 200 [Australia] 9.9 -7.9 -12.4
Silver -4.8 -11.9 -11.8
Swiss Market Index 0.7 -6.3 -2.6

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World markets performance 2015: 4Q, 2H, Full Year [GBP]

The following charts plot the performance of a selection of world markets in 2015 for the final quarter, second half and full year. 

The figures are adjusted for GB pounds; so these are the returns for a UK investor.


 

Fourth quarter

Market returns for October – December 2015

International markets 2015 4Q [GBP]


Second half

Market returns for July – December 2015

International markets 2015 2H [GBP]


Full year

Market returns for January – December 2015

International markets 2015 Full Year [GBP]


Consolidated

The above three time periods (4Q, 2H, Full Year) are consolidated into the one chart below.

International markets 2015 - 4Q, 2H, Full Year [GBP]

Data

The following table has the data for the charts.

Market 4Q(%) 2H(%) Full Year(%)
AEX [Netherlands] 4.7 -2.9 -1.2
Bovespa [Brazil] -1.5 -31.9 -38.5
Brent Oil -20.3 -36.6 -30.9
BSE Sensex [India] 1.0 -4.2 -4.8
CAC 40 [France] 3.9 0.5 3.0
DAX [Germany] 11.0 2.0 4.0
Dow Jones Industrial Average [US] 9.9 5.3 3.4
FTSE 100 [UK] 3.0 -4.3 -4.9
FTSE 250 [UK] 4.5 -0.6 8.4
FTSE MIB [Italy] 0.4 -0.9 6.9
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 3.8 -21.0 -12.9
Gold -2.3 -3.6 -5.2
Hang Seng [Hong Kong] 7.8 -11.1 -1.8
IBEX 35 [Spain] -0.4 -8.0 -11.9
Nasdaq Comp [US] 11.3 6.9 11.8
Nikkei 225 [Japan] 12.0 2.0 14.8
Platinum -2.5 -14.0 -24.1
RTS [Russia] -10.8 -33.3 -13.8
S&P 500 [US] 9.3 5.5 5.0
S&P/ASX 200 [Australia] 12.8 -1.9 -7.4
Silver -2.3 -6.2 -6.7
Swiss Market Index 3.4 -0.2 3.0

 

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